Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Tony Calvin's eight bets for Tuesday at the Festival

Welcome to the punting madhouse that is Cheltenham but joking aside, it is a four-day Festival (at the moment), comprising 28 races, so it is vital that you bide your time and let the betting opportunities come to you.

Never force it.

Apologies for re-stating this but there will be plenty of people new to the column - hopefully, anyway - but the MO is that I only tip what I am backing myself and vice-versa, and the last thing I will do is put up loose selections.

Put it this way, you will always get the full reasoning as to why they should win. If only the horses listened a touch more....

Constitution can get up the Hill first in the Supreme

Anyway, headlong into the first race it is then, and the Supreme Hurdle at 13:30 and I have been a huge fan of Constitution Hill ever since I was in attendance for his breath-taking hurdling debut win at Sandown in December.

I would have him as the marginal favourite in here.

That may be a case of the heart ruling the head as the Supreme will provide him with a much sterner test of his champion credentials, far more so than that initial success or his subsequent 12-length romp in the Tolworth at the same course, but the manner in which he travels and finishes off his races marks him down as potentially something very special.

But you have to have realism at the heart of your betting and is he a stand-out bet at around 11/4 on the exchange with the might of the Irish, and his stablemate Jonbon, ranged against him?

The answer has to be no, and so I will let him pass. I do hope he gags up, though.

Sam price too big in the Arkle

I have also been very sweet on Saint Sam for the Arkle for a while now, and I have made no secret of it in the build-up Betfair podcasts and our Festival preview last Wednesday, but I must admit I wasn't expecting the race to attract 11 runners and such a deep field, with plenty in here that I respect.

There may not be a stand-out in the race but you wouldn't even be in a mad rush to dismiss the lowest-rated pair of Magic Daze and Red Rookie (why they are not running the latter in a Grand Annual off 138 I do not know), and as such he has a much harder task than anticipated, as well as having maybe three rivals for the lead should they wish to press on with him again.

But at least we are getting a bigger price about him now, so I am not deserting him. Back him at 11.010/1 or bigger on the exchange.

His chance would not be overly-obvious at first viewing, as he has plenty to find with the two that finished in front of him in the Irish Arkle last time (Blue Lord and Riviere D'etel) before even factoring in the rock-solid claims of Edwardstone and a serious 40/1 lurker in War Lord.

But I think we did not see him at his best at Leopardstown last time. He was foot perfect when beating the recent Boyne Hurdle winner Thedevilscoachman at Fairyhouse on his chasing debut but he made a couple of crucial mistakes last time, notably when still in front going to two out, and perhaps he was a shade too free, and went too hard, for his own good there.

But he stuck on remarkably well to be beaten just over 4 lengths there and I like the angle of him being re-fitted with a hood (which he wore when second in the Boodles last season) , which may allow to him settle better, and perhaps filter in just off the pace this time.

He is too big a price to ignore at double figures.

I had a speculative dabble at massive three-figures odds on War Lord for the Turners, and I can definitely see the scenario where he mops up a minor place if they go too hard in here, but it could be all over by the time he hits top gear and I do see him as more of a 2m4f horse, especially when the ground isn't as deep as it was at Lingfield last time.

Each-way terms appeal in Ultima but sadly none of the runners do

I initially liked Kiltealy Briggs at 20/1+ in the Ultima at 14:50, but the more I went back and watched his videos, the more I could see his challenge faltering from 2 out over this 3m1f trip.

Given the Sportsbook are paying seven places in this handicap, it seems like you have to play each way in the race. But I did find it impossible, so, given my earlier comments, I am happy to sit this one out. In fact, I won't be tipping in three of the seven races on Tuesday.

The two that interested me most, given those seven places, were Our Power at 14s and Tea Clipper at 18s, but maybe the former didn't have as much left in the tank as it appeared over 3m at Kempton last time (his first attempt beyond 2m5f) and the latter is hardly solid after recent starts, even if well-handicapped, with a wind op and cheekpieces possible positives. And the 18s became 14s there on Sunday afternoon, anyway.

Sleepy can go well in the Champion Hurdle

I laid Honeysuckle at 1.715/7 immediately after what I considered to be a laboured victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the start of February, but I fully concede she will take a lot of stopping if returning her best, that being her defeat of Sharjah in this race last year.

But the most interesting market in this race is the Without Favourite line, and it comes as no shock to see Appreciate It the 5/4 favourite there.

However, how can you have a firm opinion on a horse that we haven't seen since winning the Supreme last year and who has only stayed hurdling because he had a setback before Christmas when being prepped for a novice chase campaign?

He could well be an absolute weapon, but it is hard to pull the trigger on him with so many unknowns.

I will probably surprise no regular readers by suggesting that you back Not So Sleepy at 33/1, each way, three places, without Honeysuckle, and at 16/1 each way, three places, without Honeysuckle and Appreciate It on the Sportsbook

Many will see him as something of a busted flush at 10yo and he would probably want it much deeper than is expected (the working assumption is good to soft here).

But this is a horse that finished fifth in this race last season, despite things not panning out ideally - he lost his place chance when Epatante came across him at the second-last, shuffling him back a good few lengths - and would have beaten Nicky Henderson's mare convincingly on good to soft in the Fighting Fifth in November had he jumped any of the last two hurdles.

Forget his run at Kempton over Christmas as the market fully predicted that woeful showing, and he has been given a good break since then.

This is a tactically-versatile performer - he went from the front when beating the then 148-rated Buzz at Ascot in December 2020 - and, rated 159, he is the highest-rated of the UK contingent, and within spitting distance of Teahupoo, Appreciate It and Zanahiyr.

He may not have the profile but he is simply far too big a price, and I'd be happy to see Jonathan Burke set him off in front.

Adagio's course form figures of 2122 make him a big player in this market too, and he shaped well after a long break when second to an on-song Goshen at Wincanton, albeit he was getting 3lb and some also thought he didn't relish a scrap that day. And maybe not for the first time.

He hit 1.051/20 in the run there and he has also traded at heavy odds-on when beaten on his previous two starts (1.211/5 and 1.162/13), and he does have a lot to find on the book.

Maybe the first-time tongue-tie will help on the determination score though and help him follow through with his finishing effort, and I have seen worse bets than 8/1 without Honeysuckle each way, three places, about him.

If he turns it in again behind the jolly, then at least you get paid in full.

I am happy to play him at 8/1 each way too then, as that Greatwood Hurdle effort off 11st 12lb has turned out be a red-hot handicap run, with so many coming out and winning since, and his time figures are encouraging, too.

The 9/2 each way without the top two in the market is fair, as well, if you want to double up with him, too. I will stop short of doing that.

Brook can be the Queen in the Mares

The Mares' Hurdle at 16:10 has held up well numbers-wise - with Echoes In Rain perhaps a surprise, and potentially troublesome, addition in here - but I have loved Queens Brook for this race for a while. I put her up as my main Festival bet on the Preview show last week, and she remains so at a similar price now, with an extra place thrown in.

Back her at 9/2 each way, four places.

I don't buy into the fact that Gordon Elliott apparently only had her "75%" fit when she was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Burning Victory last time but that was clearly a hugely promising run, given that it was her first start since beating Ciel De Niege (who won his next three over fences) at Fairyhouse in November and she was giving the winner 3lb.

Third to Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It in the 2020 bumper here (with a host of good horses in behind) , she looks set to be a much sharper act here, track the predicted strong pace and come home strongly from the second-last.

She's a real trier - go and have a look at the Fairyhouse head carriage, where she loved getting down and dirty - and it will be disappointing if four horses finish in front of her, with the win a distinct possibility.

Hoping it's the Tide's turn to win

Quite how no-one has got an official line from the BHA handicapper as to how Gaelic Warrior snaffled his 129 handicap mark - the French assessor had him on 139 - is something of a mystery as he must be the most talked-about horse coming into the Festival.

The vibes are that it wouldn't be surprising if they sent him out in front and he didn't see another horse - they have enough 140 and 150+ horses at home to know what they are dealing with - but even the inflated 4.216/5 on the exchange is eminently resistible in a 22-runner handicap featuring plenty of horses who haven't been overly-busy in their prep runs.

I think we can justifiably (or harshly) say that of The Tide Turn's fourth in the Red Mills last time and he looks too big to ignore at 6/1, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He won a decent maiden hurdle at Punchestown on his debut and he travelled like a dream (as he did last time at Gowran, as well) when fourth in the Spring Hurdle at Leopardstown, a run which makes his handicap mark of 137 (just 2lb higher this Irish level) look attractive.

If he can travel like that against Grade 1 animals - and one would hope the first-time tongue-tie will help as well - then you'd be surprised if he doesn't come close to winning this, for all Gaelic Warrior may be home and hosed already if that gossip is to be believed.

Dancer looks a big price to at least place

There is more new headgear on show here than there is at Hannibal Lector's house after a shopping spree. I thought it was interesting that the only horse with any Cheltenham experience was Forever William (first-time visor), but I don't think he travels and jumps well enough for this test unless that fresh bit of kit sharpens him up appreciably.

However, and I have checked this as being available when this column went llive, the best bet in this race may well be Prairie Dancer at 28/1 each way, quarter the odds, four places, without Gaelic Warrior and The Tide Turns.

I'd be happy taking 10 points lower, so 18s and above is fair.

The angle into this horse is that he has been crying out for a stiffer 2m, he ran his best race behind Icare Allen last time and he has been given a decent handicap mark of 126.

But what could seal the deal is that the blinkers are tried for the first time over hurdles. He was a smart sort on the Flat, rated 88 at his peak, and his two wins on the level came in this headgear.

I like him and would be happy to chuck a few on him at 33/1 all-in each way, five places too. So I will.

However, the W/0 bet is the best way to approach him if you can access the guide price and upwards.

If you are behind the eight-ball come the last race at 17:30 then I won't be of any use to you because the seven-runner race is about as enticing as a back, sack and crack from Priti Patel.

I am off for a therapy session after that horrific image has embedded itself in my brain, but best of luck.

I hope you start your betting week well.

***

PACE MAPS - OR MY BEST GUESS....

1.30pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Dysart Dynamo, Kilcruit, Silent Revolution; Midfield; Constitution Hill, Bring On The Night. Jonbon, JPR One. Mighty Potter; Held Up: Shallwehaveonemore

2.10pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Saint Sam, Gabynako, Magic Daze, Riviere D'etel; Midfield; Blue Lord, Brave Seasca, Edwardstone, Coeur Sublime; Held Up: Haut En Couleurs, Red Rookie, War Lord

2.50pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Frodon, Lostintranslation, Fantastikas, Vintage Clouds, Discordantly, Kiltealy Briggs, Run To Milan, One More Fleurie; Midfield; Does He Know, Ben Dundee, Floeur, Foxy Jacks, Tea Clipper, Death Duty, Rapper, Full Back, Our Power. Oscar Elite, Gericault Roque; Held Up: Noble Yeats, Doctor Duffy, Grumpy Charley, Corach Rambler, Belargus

3.30pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Not So Sleepy, Appreciate It, Teahupoo; Midfield; Adagio, Zanahiyr, Tommy's Oscar, Epatante, Honeysuckle; Held Up: Glory And Fortune, Saint Roi

4.10pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Stormy Ireland, Burning Victory, Heaven Help Us, Western Victory; Midfield; Queens Brook; Held Up: Echoes In Rain, Indefatigable, Marie's Rock, Martello Sky, Mrs Milner, Nada To Prada, Telmesomethinggirl

4.50pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Brazil, Bell Ex One, White Pepper, Saint Segal, Champion Green, Doctor Brown Bear, Skycutter; Midfield; Gaelic Warrior ?, The Tide Turns, Ebasari, Britzka, HMS Seahorse, Prairie Dancer, Iberique Du Seuil, Sea Sessions, Too Friendly, Forever William, Swinging London; Held Up: Petit Tonnerre, Doctor Churchill, Feigh, Milldam

5.30pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Run Wild Fred, Beathebullet, Pats Fancy, Vanillier; Midfield; Braeside; Held Up: Ontheropes, Stattler