Cheltenham Festival Tips: Back or lay verdicts on Mullins' Festival favourites

• Kopek Des Bordes and Majborough standouts for Day 1

• Final Demand to justify price but avoid Dinoblue and Fact To File

• Alan Dudman assesses the Willie Mullins antepost favourites for Cheltenham

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Tuesday - Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Kopek Des Bordes @ 1.9720/21

Form: Beat Kawaboomga on his hurdling debut at Leopardstown at Christmas and duly took the step up in class on just his second outing at the Dublin Racing Festival winning the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle by 13L.

Both wins were on soft and yielding as he dismantled a field that didn't perhaps look the strongest as Willie Mullins won that particular Grade 1 at Leopardstown for the thirteenth time.

He earned a Timeform rating of 110p, which was the joint-highest figure awarded to a bumper debutant following his Fairyhouse bumper win last season and already has gained a TF 154P figure which puts Kopek des Bordes 5lb clear of Romeo Coolio and amongst the leading luminaries from the past - including Altior, who held a Timeform rating of 155.

It's also worth noting his jumping was far more polished on his second start.

Festival Entries: Supreme Novices' Hurdle and Turners Novices' Hurdle (Baring Bingham).

Verdict: He was so impressive in his Grade 1 with the way he sauntered away I thought 4/51.80 could be shorter and the Supreme is Mullins' territory with six wins in the race since 2007. Indeed, he changed from 4/51.80 to 8/111.73 on Wednesday. 

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Tuesday - Arkle Challenge Chase Trophy: Majborough 1.635/8

Form: Majborough is the Triumph Hurdle winner from last season and not a typical juvenile winner as he was a big, well-made type early on and has been faultless in his fencing debut season thus far with a first win by a big margin against Tullyhill in a Beginners' and like most of Mullins' horses, went to the DRF with Grade 1 honours in the Irish Arkle winning by 9L against Forget Me Not and Firefox.

Both of the vanquished horses are 10/111.00 and 14/115.00 on the Sportsbook for Cheltenham and the UK challenge has been weakened considerably with Sir Gino's absence and injury.

Sir Gino held a lofty 162P Timeform figure before his absence, with Majborough 3lb shy of him, and while robbed of that particular clash, L'Eau du Sud is a credible rival.

To pick holes, he was novicey last time on occasions, and jumped left at Fairyhouse, but it's not enough to warrant a lay considering there is no Sir Gino.

Festival Entries: Arkle.

Verdict: Very much a back and will be in many short price accas at 4/71.57 in another race Willie has the hex on the others with six wins since 2015.

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Wednesday - Turner's Novices' Hurdle: Final Demand 2.8815/8

Form: Another with an easy debut win over hurdles by 15L in December and straight into Grade 1 company for the DRF with a 12L smash-up job in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle over 2m6f, another top level win for Closutton, thank you very much.

He was cut into 9/43.25 for the Turner's following Leopardstown and with Kopek Des Bordes aiming for the Supreme, his claims could be odds-on compared to the 6/42.50 on show, if only we knew for certain which race the wily Mullins goes for. He's 6/17.00 for the Potato race later in the week incidentally, so it's prudent to base the back or lay on that race. Even Mullins surprised a few by saying he wouldn't mind going back down in trip with him.

Effusive in praise, the trainer said: "To do what he did there on only his second run over hurdles was a huge achievement. What he did from the last to the line sets him apart from other horses.

"He's a specimen and I believe he was one of the most expensive store purchases of his generation, which doesn't always work out, but it has with this fellow."

Festival Entries: Turners Novices' Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle.

Verdict: Final Demand's performance was the best on Timeform ratings in that race since it was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 2018 for the first Dublin Racing Festival. Superstar material.

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Wednesday - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase: Ballyburn 2.789/5

Form: A full 13L winner of the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle last term at the Festival plus Punchestown, and hopes were very high for the rookie chaser going into this season and the only blip on his dance card this term was the 7L defeat to Sir Gino Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton over Christmas.

That was over 2m and he patently didn't have the pace to keep tabs with him, and that was the best novice performance of the season from Sir Gino.

With the Brown's over 3m, he looks sure to get the trip judged on his strong finish in the DRF Grade 1, a race that Fact To File won 12 months ago, and with the absence of The Jukebox Man, who only need worry about his stablemate Dancing City.

Festival Entries: Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and Arkle Chase.

Verdict: He already had a figure on Timeform ratings deemed good enough to win at 157p.

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Wednesday - Champion Bumper: Gameofinches 4.03/1

Form: Seen just once this season and this month (February) when sent off 8/151.53 favourite for a Punchestown Bumper that had plenty of outsiders at three figures in the betting.

He's a son of Blue Bresil, a big sort too for the money and travelled with ease on his debut, a performance that prompted him to rocket into favouritism for the Wednesday race.

The Champion Bumper would be one of the less liquid markets on the Exchange and Mullins could run his own private Champion Bumper with eight entries alone for this race. Yes, Gameofinches was impressive on debut, but it's one run and one run alone to judge as a Festival favourite.

Festival entries: Just this.

Verdict: At 3/14.00 it is not everyone's lay price, so take him on in the place market.

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Thursday - Ryanair Chase: Fact To File 3.185/40

Form: Superb winner of the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase over 3m last year in the Festival and came out storming with intent on seasonal reappearance with a John Durkan Memorial Punchestown win in November - and he claimed the scalp of the mighty Galopin Des Champs.

Since then, he's been left trailing in Galopin's wake when 7L behind in the Savills and a third in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase at the DRF.

His John Durkan victory earned a big figure from Timeform over 170, and he surprisingly showed enough speed for a future Gold Cup horse and one of JP's top novices from last term. Whether they have just conceded defeat in the quest against Galopin Des Champs will be revealed nearer race time and he is 8/19.00 for the Friday Gold Cup.

Festival Entries: Ryanair, Gold Cup.

Verdict: The entry of Ill Est Francais is the one reason to take him on. The French superstar could run in three different races at the Festival, but the Ryanair looks the best fit for me, plus there's Protektorat and Spillanes Tower who all might swerve the mighty Galopin too.

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Friday - Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase: Dinoblue 3.02/1

Form: Second in this 12 months ago to fellow JP chaser Limerick Lace, we've also go Allegorie De Vassy as a potential rival as she has just this entry, likewise Limerick Lace, who interestingly holds a National entry for Liverpool.

Since the race inception four years ago, no UK winner has been in the winner's enclosure although I'll be cheering for Telepathique for Lucy Wadham, who has starred for the stable and beat Brides Hill at Huntingdon. And while they might not have the class to win, they are good mares who both jump well and might outrun their odds.

Dinoblue beat Allegorie De Vassy by a small margin in the Opera Hat last time in a match race where her pace was a help rather than a hindrance over the minimum.

Festival entries: Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase. Unless Cheltenham decide to introduce a few more mares' races over say 2m3, 3m4f, 4m at the last minute.

Verdict: The outsiders could be lively contenders and I would favour Allegorie De Vassy to gain revenge over a more suitable trip.

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Friday - Gold Cup: Galopin Des Champs 1.674/6

Form: A third Cheltenham Gold Cup victory will turn even the most doubting of Thomases and sour faces (I am probably one) into saying Galopin Des Champs deserves his place amongst the greats. 

Okay, he doesn't have that style and panache of the legendary Kauto Star, a horse I witnessed in the flesh on several occasions, and while Kauto was exquisitely apparalled in looks and every other department, Galopin is hardy and tough as you look and more in the style of an old fashioned Gold Cup horse these days from his exuberant youth.  His third in the John Durkan is a thing of the past now, over a trip that was too short, and he's come back with emphatic wins in the Savills over Christmas, and his playground that is the DRF at Leopardstown. 

His Leopardstown win was greeted with cheers of "ole, ole, ole."

Fact To File has tried the waiting tactics before to beat him, but Galopin Des Champs just purrs in front with that relentless rhythm. 

He's the current top rated chaser in Timeform rankings with 179, and that's 7lb ahead of Fact To File and you wonder how a rival can take him out of his comfort zone as he is remorseless. His constitution is that of a battleship and he inflicts crushing defeats on all those that dare to challenge him. 

Priced at 8/151.53, even if it is lay territory, tackling the best staying in chaser in training is never a good idea and one I am not about to puruse, and while I give credit to the Banbridge team for their belief in having a go, and you should, he's the second favourite for this and I doubted his stamina for the King George and cannot see him cracking the mighty one.

Entries: Not sure this little vignette was needed. He goes, he wins surely?

Verdict: His prestige will be firmly established.

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