Brown Advisory Novice Chase Tips: Ahoy Senor can shine at Cheltenham

The Brown Advisory Novice Chase, formally known to many as the RSA, has long been the key race for the novice staying chasers and a springboard to Gold Cup success with 11 winners of this event going onto blue riband glory, including Bobs Worth and Denman in recent times.

With 20 fences to jump around the old course at Cheltenham, there is no hiding place for the novices, a race that does what it's designed to, by testing technique and talent in a high-pressure environment, in order to refine and define the very best.

Willie Mullins has a good record in the race and won it 12 months ago with Monkfish, who has unfortunately been side-lined this season. The Rich Ricci-owned Monkfish followed a strong trend of horses to come out of the previous year's Albert Bartlett who then go on to run well in this race.

However, the Mullins offering in this specific strand of the novice division looks strangely sub-standard compared to other years, now that Galopin Des Champs has all but been confirmed for the shorter-distance Turners.

Bravemansgame has questions to answer

The consequence of the Turners target for Galopin Des Champs is a strange situation in this day and age of the top three in the market for the Brown Advisory are likely to be all UK-trained, and for three different trainers: and the added kicker is that the three horses in question boast different profiles and probably want different things.

Bravemansgame has proven to be the best of them this season and his campaigning by Paul Nicholls has itself been a brave man's game, to start out against experienced chasers around Newton Abbot in early-October and then go from the Grade 1 at Kempton to giving away lumps of weight in a handicap at Newbury, foot-perfect all the while.

He has stepped up considerably on what he did over hurdles last season which culminated with placings at the big spring festivals and an official rating of 149. He is now already on a mark of 164, a figure that emphasises the transformative effect the bigger obstacles have had on him.

The question is just how good is he and, moreover, how good will he need to be? This will be his toughest assignment to date and, although his jumping has been rightly praised for being exceptional, that's only the process, and the power is what's needed to win at championship level.

Yes, he has already won a Grade 1, but when you look back on the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day it perhaps wasn't the graduation we all thought it would be, if you take the view that Ahoy Senor wasn't himself on the day, and the rest of the field barely counted.

He also has the track question to answer having only been to Cheltenham once before when finishing third in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle behind Bob Olinger and not delivering off the bridle quite what he promised when on it.

All his best performances this year have been at flat and mostly galloping tracks such as Newbury and Haydock, and the undulations of Cheltenham - and its stiff finish - will ask different questions of him.

All the same, his accurate jumping is a big bonus, and he's beaten everything put in front of him so far over fences, a different animal as a chaser, as connections always promised he would be.

The aforementioned Ahoy Senor is one of the big conundrums in the race. Lucinda Russell's charge clearly possesses a serious engine and we have witnessed that when he won the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Aintree last spring, overpowering none other than Bravemansgame in the process, and we have seen that huge horsepower in action again over fences at Newbury and Wetherby.

However, up against Bravemansgame at Kempton in between (when he was favourite, don't forget), the engine didn't quite purr in the style to which we have become accustomed, though the ride didn't really plug into his strong-galloping style, not that he jumped and travelled with his usual zest. Whatever the reason, that wasn't the real Ahoy Senor.

He beat Bravemansgame over hurdles and, while the Nicholls horse has improved significantly for fences, I believe Ahoy Senor has too, but we just haven't seen it yet, and there's certainly a case for saying they're closer matched in raw ability than the market suggests.

Ahoy Senor likewise has the track question mark to answer, but at different times on other courses he has shown all the qualities needed to shine at Cheltenham, of getting into a great rhythm up with the pace.

Williams runner is curveball chance

One horse we know handles Cheltenham to very good effect is L'homme Presse and Venetia Williams' seven-year-old would be considered a curve ball in this race given that his original aim and target was the 2m5f option, but it would appear that they are steering clear of the likes of Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs over the shorter distance and so he could well find himself lining up in this instead.

L'Homme Presse would win the improvement award this season so far in this field. He made his debut in early December and won a handicap chase off a mark of 129, since when he has won three more and now comes into the Cheltenham Festival with a Grade 2 under his belt, a 21 length success in a Grade 1 and a mark of 159.

His jumping is pinpoint accurate and he demonstrated that when we last saw him at Sandown. He isn't the biggest of horses and is light on his feet and nimble as a result. He gets from take-off to landing side with speed rather that scope and if there are holes to be found in any jumping departments of his rivals then L'Homme Presse is sure to find them round Prestbury Park.

The trip is the big unknown and it wouldn't be ideal that they seemed to have trained him all season with the shorter trip in mind, including bringing him here in January so that he could run over the course and distance, but are now jumping ship to the longer race in order to swerve the stiff Irish challenge.

The way in which he travels in his races, with real zest, may well be a touch too enthusiastic for a race of this nature and he, along with Ahoy Senor who also races with enthusiasm, could well set it up ideally for the likes of Bravemansgame to expend a lot less energy in the main guts of the race and have more petrol in the tank from two out to the line.

Irish entries may look elsewhere

Both Galophin Des Champs and Bob Olinger have entries in this contest but it looks as though both will now take up their engagements in the 2m5f race meaning that, for once, the Irish don't look to have a really dominant player in this as things stand.

The Willie Mullins-trained Capodanno could well show up here after unseating in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown when we last saw him. He has only been tried over this trip when hurdling and, for the majority of this novice chasing campaign, he has looked a little rushed off his feet over shorter. He will appreciate stepping back up to 3m now over fences for the first time but there would be a slight concern about him returning in a deep race of this nature off the back of a non-completion.

The likes of Stattler, Fury Road and Run Wild Fred will all be over at Cheltenahm but suggestions from both the Mullins and Elliot team are that they will all be aimed at further. Jungle Boogie and Gaillard Du Mesnil are two that have an option to go here but the former has had a slow start in life and this would be much deeper waters while the latter has proven to be a disappointment this season and remains on somewhat of a comeback mission still looking to shed his maiden chasing tag.

Noel Meade's Beacon Edge would be classed as a lively outsider and we know that this is his target as he has no other entries. He had a season in open hurdling company last year and put in a good display in the Stayers Hurdle to finish fourth behind Flooring Porter 12 months ago.

This season has been a little hit and miss with him but he has a Grade 1 win to his name in the form of the Drinmore from earlier in the season and may have just got caught out with the Grade 1 penalty in very testing conditions at Navan when we last saw him. He remains a class act and perhaps a slightly forgotten Irish raider.