Arkle Chase Tips: Back Couleurs and receive a free bet if you lose

The obvious starting point when trying to work out who will win Tuesday's Arkle Novices' Chase is to look back at last month's Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival, where four of the first five in the betting clashed.

And many observers of that race will have immediately marked down the runner-up Riviere D'etel (7/2 for Tuesday's race) as a horse to side with when next meeting the winner, Blue Lord (4/1).

Riviere D'etel approached the last fence that day just over a length ahead of Blue Lord, but a bad mistake cost her dearly, losing approximately three to four lengths and all momentum.

But to her credit, and after having to switch around the eventual winner, Gordon Elliott's mare rallied in the last 150 yards and was beaten just half a length at the line.

She certainly looked an unlucky loser against Willie Mullins' seven-year-old but she's by no means certain to turnaround the form here given that Tuesday's Arkle will be raced over approximately 270 yards shorter than the Irish Arkle, and the fact that she's 2lb worse off with Blue Lord.

Mullins holds the key

Just over four lengths back in third in the race mentioned above was another Mullins runner, Saint Sam, and what caught my eye even more so than Riviere D'etel's unlucky defeat, was the way he battled back into the race.

Saint Sam made a bad mistake two out and was ridden along and passed by the eventual first and second rounding the home turn, and it looked almost certain that he would drop away tamely.

But he rallied well and the four lengths he was behind at the final fence was almost the same distance he was beaten at the line, and I have to take the view that because of this, the front two are very beatable on Tuesday.

If the trio of Irish raiders already mentioned are to be beaten then many will fancy the current 5/2 race favourite Edwardstone to come out on top, but the one I like is the Mullins second string Haut En Couleurs.

Back Couleurs to show his class

A very lightly-raced five-year-old he finished an excellent third in last year's Triumph Hurdle on his very first run for Mullins before being placed again in another Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival a month later.

Haut En Couleurs ran out an easy winner on his chasing debut back in December and was highly fancied (went off the 10/3 third favourite) against Blue Lord (5/2) and Riviere D'etel (2/1 fav) in last month's Irish Arkle before crumbling on landing after the third fence.

There's obviously no way of telling how he would have got on against the first two that day, but the fact that there was just over a point in starting prices between them, and that the winner and second didn't really enhance their reputations in being separated by just half a length, suggests to me that at 8/1 to win this race, Haut En Couleurs has very much been overlooked in the market.

Favourite respected but go big with your money back offer

Edwardstone has done absolutely nothing wrong in winning his four completed chase starts but I do wonder why Alan King has left it so late in the day before going chasing with him (he's an 8yo now), and you always have to worry about the strength in depth in graded chases in Britain.

My gut feeling is that at least one or two of the Irish-trained raiders will be too good for Edwardstone, and given that this is effectively a free swing if you're betting upto £10 on the Sportsbook because of the money back as a free bet offer, then why not go for an 8/1 shot rather than the 5/2 jolly.