Rhys Williams

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams thinks Mousey has more than a squeak at Killarney

Killarney
Our racing expert has two selections on Monday

Our resident tipster has analysed Monday's racing and has two selections at Killarney...

  • Showed promise in points

  • Much better with hood off last time

  • Mousey Brown is overpriced at Killarney


Travelled better for headgear in points

Killarney 16:55: Seventy Eight Team 0.5pt win 33/1

Seventy Eight Team failed to win in six starts in Irish points but she showed enough promise to suggest she could be more competitive in this maiden hurdle than the market suggests.

She took on the boys on debut at Tinahely and ran respectably to finish fifth having been poorly positioned off a steady pace. She was disappointing next time but that she was off the track for over three months after suggests she may have had a problem that day and she bounced back at Bellharbour to be a strong-finishing third.

Seventy Eight Team wasn't travelling well from a long way out at Nenagh but she kept plugging away to only be beaten a length in second. It was no surprise that cheekpieces were reached for after that and there was a big change in tactics at Tralee as she made the running. She had been narrowly headed after 3 out by Fabreze but was still battling away when a loose horse barged into her on the final bend and knocked Maxine O'Sullivan out of the saddle.

On her latest start at Stowlin, she looked in trouble on the final bend as she was driven along in fourth with others travelling better but she kept battling away and was only beaten a neck.

She's quite small so I think the switch to hurdling could bring improvement from Seventy Eight Team as her jumping has held her back in points and a repeat of the prominent tactics used in points would be a positive around this track.

It might be that staying handicap hurdles is where she will show her best in the future but this isn't a strong race and I think she could run better than her big price suggests. Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Seventy Eight Team in the 16:55 at Killarney 0.5pt win

33/1

Improved for removal of hood last time

Killarney 17:25: Mousey Brown 1pt win w/o the favourite 14/1

Mousey Brown was a late starter in the Irish pointing field as she only made her debut as a six-year-old in January but she was quickly off the mark when winning a maiden on debut with ease.

She was in deeper company next time in a Winners of Two and she ran well while looking like she didn't quite see out the trip, fading on the climb to the line to finish fifth behind Dento Des Obeaux who has since run well in the Aintree Foxhunters.

Mousey Brown was switched to racing under rules for her next start which came in a bumper at Naas. She was held up in last and could never get competitive against some decent mares.

She wore a hood in points and in that bumper but she seemed to switch off too much for it over that sharper test and it was taken off on her latest start in a bumper at Tipperary where she took a step forward from the run at Naas. In a steadily run race, she moved into contention turning the final bend but couldn't quite match the speed of a few of her rivals and finished fifth.

I think this is the right trip for Mousey Brown to start off her hurdling career and outside of the favourite, the opposition haven't achieved anything out of the ordinary so far. It might be that today will be more about education for Mousey Brown but I think she's overpriced in the without the favourite market given her potential and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Mousey Brown in the 17:25 at Killarney 1pt win w/o the favourite

14/1

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 98.00pts

Returned: 87.31pts

P/L: -10.69pts

GET £40 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £40 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.