Rhys Williams

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is an ex-pointer at Punchestown

Punchestown
Our racing expert has one selection on Tuesday

Our resident tipster was on the mark with his NAP on Friday and is back today with a sole selection at Punchestown.

  • Showed promise in points

  • Drop back in trip to suit

  • Alkajack is overpriced at Punchestown


Punchestown - 14:45 - Back Alkajack w/o the favourite

Horantzau d'Airy is a very short-priced favourite for division one of the maiden hurdle and rightly so given the strength of his form. Rather than look to take him on, I think there's an appealing bet in the without the favourite market.

Striking and Foxfire Glow head that market but both have to bounce back from poor runs, Striking running badly on the flat last time and Foxfire Glow being beaten 41 lengths over hurdles when last seen.

It might be that the better ground will help Striking and the reapplication of a tongue tie makes me wonder if Foxfire Glow has had a wind op since he was last seen so he could improve but I'm going to look elsewhere.

Alkajack also has to bounce back from a poor run last time but I think he's overpriced in this market given his potential for improvement now faced with a sharper test. All four of his runs so far have come over 3m in points and he's looked an obvious non stayer.

On debut he was given a very patient ride before making a big move to be only just behind the leaders at 4 out but he soon faded away after that and finished a well beaten fifth.

He struggled in the very testing conditions at Portrush next time but bounced back at Loughanmore when finishing fourth. He was ridden much handier that day and was in the leading line of four at 2 out but after being tightened up a little turning out of the back straight, he couldn't match the leaders late on.

Alkajack did run badly on his latest start at Toomebridge but he made a bad mistake and that very tight track doesn't plenty of horses so it's possible he just had an off day.

The ability he's shown in the way he's travelled through some of his races suggests he has the ability to be more competitive in this race than the market suggests if at his best.

It may be that this is too much of a drop back in trip and around 2m4f will be where he shows his best or that he's ridden too patiently over the trip but I think he's a little overpriced in the without the favourite market and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Alkajack in the 14:45 at Punchestown 0.5pt win at 17/1

17/1

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 108.00pts

Returned: 105.41pts

P/L: -2.59pts

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