Rhys Williams

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a novice hurdler at Newcastle

Newcastle
Our racing expert has one selection on Tuesday

Our resident tipster has analysed Tuesday's racing and has a sole selection at Newcastle.

  • Ran well on hurdling debut

  • That sets clear standard outside of the fav

  • Special Rate is overpriced at Newcastle


Promising hurdling debut

Newcastle 13:40: Special Rate 1pt win w/o the favourite 11/10

Quaresome is the odds-on favourite for the opening novices' hurdle at Newcastle following a very comfortable victory on hurdling debut at Musselburgh. Rather than taking him on, I think there's an appealing bet in the without the favourite market.

Five Dollar Fine and Special Rate are close at the top of that market but I think the latter should be further clear given what they've both shown over hurdles.

Five Dollar Fine has shown some ability but I can't see any reason why he should improve on what he's shown over hurdles so far while Special Rate ran to a higher level on hurdling debut at Musselburgh and has potential for further improvement.

Special Rate showed ability early in his career for Mary Doyle, finishing third on debut behind Sporting Mike before finishing fifth in a strong maiden at Lingstown behind subsequent Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay.

He didn't really build on that in three bumpers, two for Mary Doyle and one for Phil Kirby, but I thought he took a step forward on his hurdling debut at Kelso last time when finishing second behind Ballyporeen who has won again since.

Special Rate tracked that rival on the inside for much of the race before being switched wide on the run to the last. He couldn't quite get to Ballyporeen but finished eight lengths clear of the rest.

I think the first two home that day were more superior to their rivals than the margin back to them suggests.

They may also choose to make the running with Special Rate today as I think he would ideally want a bit more of a test of stamina than he faces today and there's no obvious front runner in the field but they do have the option to track the pace if they decide to make the running with Five Dollar Fine.

It may turn out that Nab Wood is capable of running well on debut but Nicky Richards' hurdling newcomers tend to need the experience and any evens or bigger appeals about Special Rate in the without the favourite market.

Back Special Rate in the 13:40 at Newcastle 1pt win w/o the favourite

11/10

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 99.50pts

Returned: 87.31pts

P/L: -12.19pts

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