Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a C&D winner at Newton Abbot

• Likely strong pace to suit

• Lightly raced over fences

• Noahthirtytwored is overpriced at Newton Abbot

Newton Abbot - 15:40 - Back Noahthirtytwored

This race looks likely to be well run and I'm hoping that sets up for the lightly raced Noahthirtytwored to make a strong late challenge.

He got off the mark over fences on his chasing debut over this C&D last September when his jumping was unconvincing at times early on and he followed that up with a good run in defeat at Cheltenham when beaten 9¾ lengths into fourth, running to a level above his rating that day of 119.

Noahthirtytwored was off the track for 188 days after that and had a prep run on the flat before switching back to chasing at Worcester where he made his handicap debut in the sphere.

He was hampered early on when Earth Company fell in front of him and he wasn't helped by being crowded at various stages but he still ran a good race to finish second to Raffle Ticket.

He came down on his latest start over fences at Southwell when he jumped the fence fine but stumbled on landing and fell but he showed there were no ill effects from that when finishing a close fourth on the flat just eight days later.

I think the likely scenario of this race could see Noahthirtytwored at his best with the potential for a strong pace for him to close into and he could be open to more improvement than many of his rivals who mostly look to have reached their level or, in the case of Clear The Runway, could need the run after a break.

It is a bit concerning that Noahthirtytwored's jumping wasn't great in the early stages at Southwell but that was the case for a few horses that day who normally jump fine so the surface may have had an impact on that.

There has been some early market support for him but I think he's still a little overpriced and any 100/304.30 or bigger appeals.