Rhys Williams

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Transatlantic to fly home at Wetherby

Wetherby
Our racing expert has six selections on Boxing Day

Our resident tipster has analysed the Boxing Day cards and has six selections at Leopardstown, Down Royal and Wetherby...


Leopardstown - 12:00 - Back No Flies On Him

Ascending sets a very good standard in the opening maiden hurdle at Leopardstown but I think he finds himself up against a smart recruit from the pointing field who looks a big danger.

No Flies On Him made a winning start to his career in a maiden point at Knockanard in very taking style. He was held up and was over ten lengths behind the leader turning out of the back straight and starting the very long run to three out. He made a little headway but was still only in a share of fourth jumping two out. He made more significant headway, while still travelling well, approaching the home straight and he was only given a couple of cracks to pick up Jango Baie close home.

The ease with which he closed on the leaders and then picked up a smart rival was notable and marked him out as a horse of significant quality. I think the sharper test today shouldn't be an issue for him and he looks to have a strong chance to get off the mark on rules debut. Any 2/13.00 or bigger appeals.

Back No Flies On Him in the 12:00 at Leopardstown 1pt win at 5/23.50

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Leopardstown - 13:10 - Back Karafon

Mighty Bandit is a worthy short-priced favourite in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown following a smart performance on debut. Willie Mullins has five runners taking him on and Karafon makes some appeal at the prices on his first start for the yard.

He showed some ability in three starts on the flat but showed far more on his hurdling debut in a division on the Prix Finot in September. He led the field in the early stages before being headed turning into the back straight. He continued to race handily on the outside before losing his place slightly on the final bend when racing wide. He soon recovered and was back upsides at two out but he couldn't quite hold his position approaching the last and had to be switched before picking up again on the run-in to finish a close third.

I thought Karafon ran to a good level that day and given that he was with Yannick Fouin I would expect there to be more to come from him, particularly as his jumping sharpens up.

It might be that improvement will come in the longer term and over fences but I think he's a bit overpriced given the ability he's already shown and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.

Back Karafon in the 13:10 at Leopardstown 0.5pt e/w at 16/117.00

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Down Royal - 13:58 - Back I Don't Get It

It's a rare sight to see a horse rated 29lb lower in one jumping sphere compared to another be a double-figure price but that's the case with I Don't Get It, who makes his second start over fences at Down Royal this afternoon.

His chasing debut came at Wexford in June last year, where he was held up and generally jumped fine but could never get into contention.

He was running off his hurdles mark of 83 that day but he's since gone up 27lb in that sphere following three victories and some fair runs in defeat, including at this course.

I Don't Get It has only beaten one rival in his last two starts but they were in a Grade 3 and when going off too quickly in the conditions in a handicap hurdle last time.

Given the way he jumped at Wexford, I'm hopeful that he can at least show a fairly similar level of ability over fences that he has done over hurdles and he could prove himself to be very well handicapped today.

There is the concern that he's a front runner who looks to have plenty of competition for the lead and he's generally inconsistent so it's difficult to be sure exactly what to expect from him but off this mark in a race of this quality, any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals.

Back I Don't Get It in the 13:58 at Down Royal 1pt win at 10/111.00

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Down Royal - 14:33 - Back Vaucelet w/o fav

Ferns Lock will be tough to beat in this hunter chase if turning up at his best. Rather than take him on, I think the without the favourite market looks appealing.

Its On The Line heads that market but he goes without the cheekpieces that appeared to transform him last season. Shantou Show wasn't beaten far by Billaway last season but I have doubts over the validity of that form while Ramillies' two wins haven't been against the strongest of Open fields.

Vaucelet has been beaten at very short prices in two starts in points this season but he ran to a similar level on his first start of last season when narrowly winning an Open and I can happily forgive his latest start when ridden by a novice rider as Vaucelet has never struck me as the ideal type for a novice rider.

If he can bounce back to the level of his best form last season then he looks a leading contender to chase home Ferns Lock and the booking of Rob James is a positive as a rider of his quality being able to claim 7lb in a hunter chase provides an automatic edge.

It may be that Vaucelet has started to get quirkier and maybe he will need headgear at some point but I think he should be closer to the head of the without the favourite market and any 7/24.50 or bigger appeals.

Back Vaucelet in the 14:33 at Down Royal 1pt win w/o the fav at 9/25.50

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Down Royal - 14:33 - Back Wowsham w/o fav

At a bigger price, I can't understand why Wowsham is a double-figure price in the without the favourite market.

He finished one place ahead of Vaucelet on his first start of the season and followed that up with a wide margin success in testing conditions. He was no match for Ferns Lock at Dromahane last time but I'm not sure that track suited him as he could only stay on late to take third.

I think today's test will be more to his liking and even a repeat of the level he's run to this season would give him a good chance of chasing home Ferns Lock.

There is a slight doubt that he lacks the chasing experience under rules of some of his rivals but considering how well he ran on his chasing debut that's not too much of a concern. Any 7/18.00 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.

Back Wowsham in the 14:33 at Down Royal 1pt win w/o the fav at 11/112.00

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Wetherby - 15:20 - Back Transatlantic

Transatlantic hasn't troubled the winner in two starts for Olly Murphy but he's shaped better than the result on both occasions and I think he has a good chance to get off the mark for this yard this afternoon.

He travelled well for a long way on his first start for the yard after a 565-day break at Ayr until stopping very quickly in the closing stages.

He was given a wind op after that and that appeared to help at Bangor on his latest start but an awful round of jumping meant that he wasn't able to fully benefit from it. Despite jumping so poorly, he was still able to move into second at two out before the effort of having to make up so much ground in testing conditions took its toll and he faded to finish third.

Transatlantic has shown in the past that he's capable of jumping perfectly well so I'm hoping that was a one-off and he can put in a much better round today. Although it was the same grade of race, I think the Bangor race was also a stronger one than this and hopefully Transatlantic can build on the promise on those two runs. Any 5/16.00 or bigger appeals.

Back Transatlantic in the 15:20 at Wetherby 1pt win at 6/17.00

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Read Daryl Carter's Boxing Day tips here.


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