Our resident tipster has analysed Thursday's racing and has a sole selection at Newbury...
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Showed promise in points
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This test likely to suit
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David's Well is overpriced at Newbury
Those in division one look to have the best of the divide in the bumper at Newbury. Those that have run under rules hardly set a high standard and I'm hoping that an Irish ex-pointer can take advantage on his rules debut.
David's Well had two runs for Cormac Doyle and showed ability while suggesting that a sharper test would suit him. He made his debut at Tallow in February, where he mostly raced towards the back of the field before making smooth headway on the run to the first fence on the final circuit. He turned into the back straight in a close fifth but couldn't go with the leaders after three out and he was hampered after jumping two out which caused his rider to be unseated.
He returned to action two months later at Rathcannon and built on that debut run with a promising third. He was held up once again and he raced in second last, a little detached from the main group, throughout the first circuit. After jumping three out, he made headway on the very long run to two out that nearly take him into a share of the lead jumping that fence and he quickly went clear in a leading line of three after that.
He appeared to be going best but jumped a sand-filled patch of ground on the run to the last which took him off his stride and hampered his momentum a little. That allowed his two rivals to get the advantage going to the last and David's Well had little left on the run-in, fading into third.
The way that David's Well was ridden in those races suggests that connections thought he might have stamina concerns over three miles and his performances backed that up and suggested that he could be better suited by today's test.
He was also up against some good quality opposition in those races. The winner on his debut, Butcher Hollow, won a bumper next time while the runner up was a close second next time to a subsequent dual bumper winner and the third has since finished second in a bumper. From his second start, the runner up has since won a bumper.
I'm hoping that they will be looking to ride David's Well prominently over this sharper test and that is often the case with the yard's bumper horses that come from Irish points but it is a bit concerning that Electric Mason was held up at Ascot on Saturday.
The going stick suggests the ground could be softer than officially described but that shouldn't be an issue for David's Well and I think he has the ability to be competitive in this race unless there are some stars among the newcomers. Any 6/17.00 or bigger appeals.