After a strong Tuesday with two wins and a second from our new racing guru, Rhys has lined up a Lucinda Russell selection, as well as an early evening pick over at Kempton...
"It will be tough work in the conditions at Wetherby and that will suit Sutton Manor, whose three wins have come on soft to heavy or heavy ground."
It will be tough work in the conditions at Wetherby and that will suit Sutton Manor, whose three wins have come on soft to heavy or heavy ground. Those victories came when in the care of Gordon Elliott and he was off the track for just over a year and a half before making his debut for Lucinda Russell in February last year.
His first three runs for Russell didn't offer much encouragement but he showed more at Haydock in November when he travelled well into a share of the lead approaching the second fence in the back on the final circuit where he fell. On his most recent outing at Ayr, he travelled well in a prominent position for a long way before dropping away after 2 out.
He's been dropped 3lb for that run and the step back from 3m3f to 3m should suit. There are plenty in here that often race prominently so they would likely be best planning to race just off the leaders rather than trying to go with them and I think anything bigger than 10-1 underestimates Sutton Manor's chance on ground he loves.
Lunar Bounty makes her handicap debut in this fillies' handicap and an opening mark of 62 could prove to be lenient. She hasn't had things to suit in her last two races, with a very steady pace which made it tough to make ground being against her over C&D two starts ago and the fibresand at Southwell being unsuitable on her latest outing.
There are enough horses that can lead or race prominently, either by design or because they're racing keenly, to think that this race will at least be run at an even pace and that will help Lunar Bounty to settle and give her a better chance of being able to make ground in the closing stages.
The market has already started to edge nearer to a price that I think would accurately reflect her chance, but anything north of 8-1 still appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
P&L: +5.50 points