Rhys Williams' Wednesday Racing Tips: The Dude can spring a surprise

Inconsistent C&D winner could bounce back

Catterick 15:30: Guardia Svizzera 0.5pt e/w 50/1

There's likely to be a strongly contested pace in this six furlong handicap which could set it up for a closer and, at a huge price, I wouldn't be surprised as the market would be if the horse to take advantage is Guardia Svizzera.

He's inconsistent and has run badly on his last two starts although on the first of those at Hamilton he was reported to be coughing afterwards and he was sent off at 9/2 that day after a good run on his previous start over the same C&D.

He performed much better than the market expected in finishing third at 50/1 and that run suggested a return to six furlongs could be ideal for him. Having been pushed along at halfway, he kept responding well to pressure and was closing on the front pair very late on. The winner of that race, Gunnerside, is now rated 19lb higher while the fourth is now rated 7lb higher.

Guardia Svizzera has won over this C&D and run well in defeat on another occasion and a return to six furlongs around a bend might bring him back to life after a poor run at Newcastle last time.

It may turn out that he puts in another of his shocking runs but I think the market has underestimated his chance given his fairly recent showing that he still retains some ability and any 33/1 or bigger appeals.

Could get ideal trip tracking strong pace

Lingfield 17:25: Mick's Spirit 0.5pt e/w 35/1

Mick's Spirit was involved in the eventual maiden at Chelmsford that saw Saatty finish well clear after Independent Beauty took out the other two runners on the bend. He's unlikely to face such issues today and could get the ideal trip on the inside rail which may allow him to build on the ability he showed in his first two starts.

He made his debut for Richard Guest at Pontefract over five furlongs last year and showed good speed to track the leaders on the inside rail. Pushed along early in the straight, he looked a bit uncoordinated while running on to finish fourth. The winner of that race, Regional, went on to finish fourth in a Listed race behind Winter Power later in the season.

Mick's Spirit was then off the track for 300 days before making his first start for Conrad Allen at Yarmouth over six furlongs. Away quickly from the stalls, he soon pulled his way to the front and took the field along while racing isolated from the others further towards the far side. He was joined for the lead with two furlongs to go and was still in contention for a place a furlong out before fading very quickly late on to finish last.

He's since run badly over seven furlongs but I think he's a sprinter and the return to five furlongs in a race where he's likely to be able to get cover behind a strong pace could allow him to bounce back and show his true ability.

It may be that he's just not the horse he was earlier in his career or that he will only show his full ability when the hood comes off over this sort of test but I think his chance has been overlooked by the market in a weak maiden. Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

More promise on debut than result suggests

Lingfield 17:25: Hope Springs 0.5pt win 80/1

Hope Springs was a selection in this column before she failed to enter the stalls at Windsor earlier this month and I can't let her go unbacked at a huge price again today given the lack of quality in this maiden.

Hope Springs was beaten 15½ lengths on debut at Lingfield in June last year but she showed more ability than that results suggests. She showed good early speed and raced keenly under some restraint in second turning the first bend. She raced a bit awkwardly on the bend and shifted out which left her three wide running down the side of the course. She was nudged along in a share of third two furlongs out before appearing to hang under pressure and finding nothing, fading quickly in the last furlong.

All eight horses who finished ahead of Hope Springs and now rated 73 or higher and all bar one of them is no longer a maiden so she was in good company for her debut.

The long absence since suggests that she's had a problem and there's a concern that she may repeat the very weak finishing from her debut or repeat her antics from Windsor and not go into the stalls but the drop back to five furlongs should suit and I think she showed enough ability on debut to suggest she can run better than her huge price suggests.

Physically looked the type to improve with time

Kempton 19:25: Mc'Ted 0.5pt e/w 20/1

The market hasn't missed those who have shown obvious promise so far but I think there's a horse who has the potential to improve from his debut who has been overlooked.

Mc'Ted made his debut at Windsor over a mile in early May and showed some ability. He was very slowly away and trailed the field early on but soon caught up and raced towards the back of the field early on. Shaken along with around 2½ furlongs to go, he raced greenly and wandered around in the very windy conditions but kept running on to finish sixth, beaten 8¼ lengths.

Four of the five horses that beat him that day are now rated 84+ so he was up against a strong field on debut and ran fairly well considering the slow start and greenness in the difficult conditions for a newcomer.

Physically he looked the type to improve with time so it's not too much of a surprise that he's had a break since and he could be all the better for that.

The drop back to seven furlongs is a bit concerning as there wasn't an obvious sign that he wanted that but I think he has enough ability to be competitive if handling the shorter trip and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.

Return to good ground will suit

Bellewstown 19:50: The Dude Abides 1pt win 20/1

Aslukwoodhavit is once again odds-on for a bumper and looks to make it third time lucky on that front having been beaten at 4/9 on two occasions at Downpatrick and Sligo. This may be a slightly easier race but he's clearly become disappointing and there's a horse at a big price who I think could be capable of causing a shock.

The Dude Abides is having his ninth start in a bumper, having had five for previous trainer Mags Mullins and his latest three for Sarah Lynam who has also ridden him in all bar one of his starts. While he has had an inconsistent profile since joining Lynam and may not have much improvement to come, a repeat of his performance two starts ago at Navan would give him a much better chance than the market suggests.

He was held up in last from the off and was still there turning across the top of the course. Angled to the outside early in the home straight, he made good headway to be in contention going through the wings of 2 out. He couldn't go with the leading pair after the wings of the last but kept running on under driving to finish fourth.

The winner of that race was Sundrenched who went on to finish fifth in the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown behind Kilcruit. Hes A Hardy Bloke was second. He won a bumper next time and is now rated 134 over hurdles. The third and fifth are now rated 118 and 112 over hurdles respectively.

The Dude Abides has since been well beaten at Punchestown but that was on soft ground and he was eased after being hampered shortly before the home straight.

The return to good ground should suit The Dude Abides and this is a weaker contest than the one he contested at Navan. It may be that he's had an issue since which may not allow him to run back to that level or he may be slightly in need of the run after a long break but I think the market has overlooked his chance and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.