Rhys Williams has analysed Wednesday's racing and has three selections at Limerick...
"He's clearly looked in need of a sharper test and gets that today so I expect there will be improvement to come from the level he's achieved in points."
Looked in need of sharper test in points
With Favori de Champdou having come out of the opening race at Listowel, it's now a fairly weak maiden hurdle and I think a couple of ex-pointers have the potential to take advantage of this.
Paladian Jewel had an inconsistent profile in points but he showed some ability while looking in need of a sharper test. On debut at Ballycahane, he was held up towards the back of the field early on before making headway and he briefly went to the front leaving the back on the final circuit. He was a bit tight for room on the bend and going to 2 out but was still in a share of second turning into the home straight before being left behind by the leading trio going to the last. After an awkward jump at the last, he was eased and finished last.
The first four home that day have all won under rules since and ended up with ratings of 119+ in Britain or Ireland, while the sixth has won a maiden since and the seventh would have won a maiden hurdle at Limerick since but for falling at the last.
Paladian Jewel came up against Jonbon on his next start and while no match for that rival, ran well in third finishing not far behind Lavorante who has since shown ability under rules.
Paladian Jewel was pulled up next time at Ballindenisk but shaped better than that suggests as he was still travelling well on the long run to 2 out before fading rapidly in the home straight.
He looked an obvious non stayer two starts ago at Tipperary and it's likely as a result of those two performances that he was given a very patient ride at Tralee on his latest start. He gradually crept into contention and travelled well to make his challenge at 2 out but couldn't get Givega off the bridle while pulling clear of the rest.
He's clearly looked in need of a sharper test and gets that today so I expect there will be improvement to come from the level he's achieved in points. They can also ride him handier over this trip rather than needing to ride him very patiently and that could bring improvement too.
It might turn out that Paladian Jewel is just a weak finisher over any trip but I think he's shown enough ability to suggests he can be competitive in what is a weak race and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.
Jumping issues in points
Ballyegan Park didn't show much on debut at Boulta before falling and his jumping soon put an end to his race at Dromahane when pulled up before the third but he showed a level of ability on his third and most recent start that suggests he could be competitive in a race of this quality.
He turned into the home straight in front travelling well that day with most of his rivals under pressure. When asked for his effort after jumping 2 out, he wandered left and right and was joined by Powerful Position. They were upsides at the last when Ballyegan Park dived at the fence and came down.
There are mixed signals from the form since but he ran to a similar level on the day to the winner of division one, Great Heart'jac. That horse has since shown some ability in bumpers while the runner up in division one and since finished second in three maiden hurdles.
It may be that Ballyegan Park needs the run after a long break or that he wants a bit further but in a weak race I think the market is underestimating his chance and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Promise on hurdling debut
This is another race that has been made much weaker due to a Gordon Elliott trained non runner. The market hasn't missed the chance of Learning Every Day but I think it is underestimating a horse making his first start in a bumper having run twice over hurdles last season.
Fox Watch had shown some ability in a maiden point in March 2020 and he built on that in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse after 349 days off. Always handy on the inside, his jumping lacked fluency a little at times but he was still travelling quite well entering the home straight in a share of second. He couldn't go with Breakeven after jumping 2 out and was left in third place at the last after New Ross fell.
The winner of that race is now rated 120 over hurdles while the runner up won a maiden hurdle next time and New Ross has won a maiden hurdle since.
Fox Watch was much shorter in the market for his next start at Limerick but after travelling well he dropped away quickly once coming under pressure on the final bend.
The manner in which he faded that day suggested that he may have had a problem and he's been off the track for 118 days since.
Given that he didn't finish too strongly at Fairyhouse either, it may be that he is just a weak finisher but the way he travelled against fairly good company at Fairyhouse suggests he has enough ability to be competitive in a race of this quality and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
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