Rhys Williams had a 50/1 winner yesterday and returns with two selections at Perth and Leicester...
"I think a rating of 123 underestimates what he achieved in France and he has the additional benefit of the overly generous 4yo chasing allowance."
Lenient opening British mark and 4yo allowance
Only four now line up in this 2m4f handicap chase and I think that by far the youngest of them has been let in lightly on his British debut.
Having been claimed following victory at Fontainebleau, On Your Mark gave away his chance late on at Compiegne on handicap debut through hanging left under pressure.
However, there were no signs of a repeat of that when he won at the same track in a handicap two starts later with more in hand than the margin suggests. Having led from the start, he was headed at 5 out but remained in a prominent position on the inside. He was still travelling well tracking the leader going to the last and only had to be ridden hands and heels to assert on the run in.
He followed that with a good run in defeat off a 2.5kg higher mark in a handicap chase at Auteuil before being outclassed in a Grade 3 on his final start in France.
His opening handicap mark in Britain is an interesting one as it's a very rare case of the handicapper moving away from the usual formula with a horse that hasn't been running in Grade 1s. While I think the usual formula would have overrated him, I think a rating of 123 underestimates what he achieved in France and he has the additional benefit of the overly generous 4yo chasing allowance.
There is the unknown over how he will react to a likely stronger run race than he's encountered in France and the different style of fences, although the way he jumped fences of a similar type to British ones in France suggests that he should be fine on that front.
While Solar Impulse has put together a string of good runs and Cracking Destiny ran well last time and could be returning to his best, I think On Your Mark could have too much in hand on his British debut and any 7/4 or bigger appeals.
Ran well against a pace bias last time
Daniel Deronda returned from a 213-day absence at Ayr and ran by far the best of those who were held up in a slowly-run race.
Restrained from a wide draw, he raced in second last early on before dropping into last place entering the home straight. Pushed along with around two furlongs to go, he couldn't make much ground until late on when he finished strongly into fifth.
He was the only one of those held up to make any headway. Hajjam, who raced in third last and finished second last, has since finished second in a handicap at Ascot. Classy Al, who swapped between last and second last early on and finished last, has since run better when finishing fifth in a handicap at the same track.
This race is likely to be run at a more suitable pace for Daniel Deronda and can allow him to build on that promising run.
There is the unknown over whether he can repeat that level of form if the heavy rain comes and turns the ground soft or worse but hopefully that won't be an issue and any 3/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
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