Rhys Williams fancies two horses to bounce back from disappointments at Lingfield and Musselburgh...
"Skatman has since had a wind op and wears a tongue tie for the first time today. I think the much better ground will suit and this looks a very good opportunity for him."
Lingfield's Flying 5 To Suit
Zen Dancer heads the market for the 5-runner novice stakes over 5f at Lingfield after finishing third over this C&D on his second start. That was a big improvement on his debut and he may improve again but I think one of the opposition is also capable of improving plenty from their debut and could be a big threat.
Miss Seafire was strongly backed on debut over 5f at Southwell and went off 5/6 fav up against three rivals including the 75-rated The Hulk. That rival won while Miss Seafire finished last but she showed far more promise than that finishing position suggests.
Having been a bit awkwardly away, she travelled strongly behind the leaders early on before cruising to the front with three furlongs to go. While her rivals came under pressure with just over two furlongs to go, she still appeared to be travelling well but once pushed along soon after, she found little and wilted inside the final furlong.
Clearly it's worrying that Miss Seafire went from travelling all over her rivals to nothing in quick time and it could be that she's a three furlongs filly. However, it could also have been the surface or an issue that's been resolved in the 24 days since that debut which caused her to weaken so quickly.
I'm hoping it's one of the latter two and I think Lingfield's five furlongs will suit her strong travelling nature so she appeals at 11/4.
Skatman To Bounce Back
Skatman was one of three horses to arrive at Paul Nicholls' yard having run in the same maiden point at Dromahane. While Lieutenant Rocco was moved to Colin Tizzard (and subsequently Nick Mitchell) before he ran for Nicholls, the runner up Barbados Buck's has since won three races over hurdles and is now a leading hope for the Albert Bartlett.
Skatman beat Barbados Buck's quite comfortably and took a long time to pull up at Dromahane, a performance that suggested he could reach a good level under rules.
His sole run under rules since came in a bumper at Ascot on soft ground. Having travelled well, he was in contention just before turning the final bend but once being pushed along soon after, he found little and was beaten 26 lengths.
That was a strong bumper with subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory winning the race, the runner up Kid Commando is now rated 140 over hurdles and the third was Bravemansgame who is now one of the market leaders for the Ballymore.
Skatman has since had a wind op and wears a tongue tie for the first time today. I think the much better ground will suit and this looks a very good opportunity for him. The only apparent danger is 117-rated Presentandcounting, who is currently favourite, but he's looked a tricky ride having raced keenly and hung under pressure in the closing stages and it's not certain that this longer trip will suit him.
I think the market has this wrong and Skatman should be favourite so the 11/10 appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021