Rhys Williams' Wednesday Racing Tips: Course and distance winner to bounce back

Lingfield
Our racing expert has two selections on Wednesday

Rhys Williams was on the board yesterday with Sergeant and has two selections today at Lingfield.

"Beepeecee is now dropped back in trip to a suitable distance and he was a two-time C&D winner for this trainer off a stone and 19lb higher marks in 2019."

Returns to more suitable trip on first start for new yard

Lingfield 15:30: Louis Treize 1pt win 16/1

Louis Treize's rating has been on a gradual decline this season and it might be that he's just not as good as he was but I think he has a chance of bouncing back today on his first start for James Evans.

Evans picked the horse up at the Tattersalls July Sale for 14,000gns which is a surprisingly high amount for a 60-rated five-year-old and suggests that a few buyers thought Louis Treize was capable of better than he's been showing of late.

Louis Treize raced extremely keenly on his first start of the season over a mile at Nottingham before dropping away quickly late on.

Dropped back to six furlongs for his next start at Thirsk, he showed more promise when running fairly well in first time cheekpieces off 71. He raced in midfield towards the near side of the group and looked a bit unbalanced at around halfway but kept plugging away under pressure late on to only be beaten 2¾ lengths in ninth.

He struggled on soft ground at Ascot after that and has been dropped further back in trip to five furlongs on his last two starts where he's unsurprisingly been outpaced.

Louis Treize has been dropped 13lb since the start of the season and runs today off 60. Given that there have been clear excuses for four of his five runs this season and he ran fairly well off an 11lb higher mark in the other one, I think the handicapper has been a bit hasty to drop him that much and he could take advantage today back over a more suitable trip.

As mentioned earlier, it may turn out that he's just not as good as he was or he might need more time to settle into his new yard before the revival comes but given the potential for a turnaround in form with the trainer switch and return to a suitable distance, any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

Big positive jockey switch

Lingfield 16:00: Beepeecee 1pt win 9/1

Since the start of 2020, Beepeecee's form has generally been abysmal and he's not beaten many horses in eight starts but I think he has a chance of suddenly springing back to life this afternoon having shown more than the result suggests on his last two starts.

Two starts ago at Wolverhampton, he was restrained in second last early on and raced a long way off the leaders and very wide on the track. He made some headway towards the end of the back straight and continued that on the final bend while racing about six wide before fading late on.

He was strangely sent back up in trip to 1m2f for his latest start at Nottingham and raced prominently from the off. He was still in third, albeit some way behind the front pair, with around 1½ furlongs to go before completely dropping away late on.

Beepeecee is now dropped back in trip to a suitable distance and he was a two-time C&D winner for this trainer off a stone and 19lb higher marks in 2019. There is also a big positive jockey switch with Tyler Heard taking the mount today so everything is in place for Beepeecee to run much better if he still retains any ability.

That is a point he still has to prove as although he's shown more on his latest starts, it's still not been much, and it might just be that he's not the horse he was.

However, he looks a rare case in this field of a horse who could be significantly better than their mark if everything clicks into place and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 304.00pts
Returned: 365.16pts
P/L: +61.16pts

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