Rhys Williams' Wednesday Racing Tips: Amarillo to show rivals the way home

Newton Abbot
Our racing expert has one selection at Newton Abbot

Rhys Williams has analysed Wednesday's racing and has one selection at Newton Abbot.

"He’s back down in trip today and while the combination of that and this track may be a bit sharper than ideal for him, I think that’s also the case for his two main rivals and Amarillo Sky may be able to gain a tactical advantage over them."

Opportunity to make all

Newton Abbot 15:35: Amarillo Sky 1pt win 100/30

Last season was the first time since the 2013/14 season that Colin Tizzard had a single-figure strike rate and some of his younger horses were slow to begin showing their true ability. Amarillo Sky was one such horse and this left him well handicapped as a result.

He was well held on handicap debut at Warwick but that was on heavy ground and keenly in behind the leaders. They changed tactics at Exeter on his next start and a combination of that and the better ground resulted in significant improvement. He had the rest of the field in trouble turning the final bend and despite a mistake at 3 out, eased away from his rivals to win by seven lengths.

He was put up 13lb for that win and ran in a Grade 3 handicap at Aintree on his latest start. He was stepped up to 2m4f for that and the trip looked to stretch him at this stage of his career. Having initially tracked the leaders early on, he was allowed to make headway to move into second with a circuit to go.

He jumped into the lead at the last in the back but was restrained back into second and travelled well on the long run to 3 out. He jumped that in a share of the lead and was pushed along after. He continued to battle on under pressure and was only just over a length down at the last, from which point he dropped away quickly.

Amarillo Sky has been dropped 3lb for that which I think is overly generous given he was still in contention at the last.

He's back down in trip today and while the combination of that and this track may be a bit sharper than ideal for him, I think that's also the case for his two main rivals and Amarillo Sky may be able to gain a tactical advantage over them. It would be sensible for them to revert back to front running tactics with him given that there's no other obvious candidate for that role and he won't want this to turn into a crawl and sprint scenario.

Of the opposition, Heross Du Seuil heads the market with the subsequent performances of Her Indoors, who was ten lengths behind him at Kempton in December, likely the cause of that with the expectation that he's very well handicapped as a result. However, I'm not convinced that he is and his jumping on both starts over hurdles has been cautious. He was easily left behind by Cabot Cliffs last time at Warwick and he will need to show more speed today.

I think Chez Hans has no turn of foot and relies on others coming back him, which duly happened when Cheng Gong was sent on a long way out and wilted late at Taunton two starts ago. I'm not convinced that the likely pace scenario in this race will allow him to show his best.

Rockadenn has more ability than his rating and if he decides to cooperate to show it then he will be a danger but he's looked a very tricky ride and he was even hanging left the whole way at Uttoxeter last time with a rail immediately to his left so the open space to the inside today is a concern.

And that leaves Amarillo Sky's stablemate, Getaway Fred, who found little in the closing stages at Exeter last time in a steadily run contest.

It may be that we will have to wait until he goes over fences for Amarillo Sky to show that he's better than his rating of 125 but the likely tactical setup of today's race gives him a very good chance to show that now and any 5/2 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 112.50pts
Returned: 108.18pts
P/L: -4.32pts

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