Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has two selections at Limerick.
"However, I think he's shown enough promise to suggest that he could be better than his opening mark of 88 and he may only need a pound or two in hand given the weakness of this contest."
Promising signs in points and beginners chases
This is an extremely weak 0-95 handicap chase and in these sort of races I prefer to side with those that have yet to confirm they are definitely of this level, with those horses taking my fancy at the prices in this race.
Aces Full is the first of those and his career started in a very eventful maiden point to point at Rathcannon. He travelled very well for a long way that day but looked likely to be on the losing end of the argument when His Oscar came down at the last.
Aces Full also made a mistake, slithered on landing and came to a halt, while Bourbon Street was similarly stopped having been hampered by His Oscar. They both started going again and Bourbon Street got the better of the battle to the line.
Aces Full's only other run for Sam Curling was the following month when he raced prominently for a long way before weakening quickly late on in the very testing ground.
He's since moved to Patrick Breen and, despite being well held on all three starts in beginners chases, he's shaped with some promise. His jumping was cautious at Naas on rules debut and he could never get into contention but he was badly hampered at 2 out and ran on quite well after that to finish sixth.
At Cork, he was similarly never in contention and his jockey was of the opinion that the horse was very tired so he didn't give him a remotely hard ride, yet despite that tiredness he did finish quite strongly.
His run at Tipperary earlier this month wasn't so promising, which is slightly concerning. Having been held up, he made some headway to be in midfield with a circuit to go before dropping away quickly early in the back straight and finishing tailed off.
It may turn out that he was flattered in running on late in the first two starts in beginners chases and it may be that he doesn't much find when asked for effort as he didn't finish as much as looked likely before the last on his point debut and he's weakened quickly on two occasions since.
However, I think he's shown enough promise to suggest that he could be better than his opening mark of 88 and he may only need a pound or two in hand given the weakness of this contest.
There has already been market support for him (which may or may not have been the result of someone first asking for £25 at 12.5 on the exchange, bots then sticking £2 at 12 and 11.5 ahead of that and then the £25 changing to £123) but his initial price was much bigger than I made him so rather than being a 2pt bet, he's now a 1pt bet and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.
Promise in two of his last three runs
Greenway Machine also started his career in the pointing field and eventually got off the mark at the 13th attempt in a 6-runner maiden.
He showed a little promise on his first three starts under rules but he showed far more on his handicap debut at Thurles, despite eventually being beaten 51 lengths. Having initially set off towards the back of the field, he soon made headway to race in second going down the back straight for the first time.
He moved into a share of the lead going across the top of the course and was still there on the final circuit going to 3 out. He got in a bit tight to that and was headed and after jumping 2 out in a share of second, he dropped away very quickly.
That was over 3m1f and he was dropped back to 2m4f on his next outing at Punchestown. He was held up early on and then made headway shortly before turning down the back straight to race just behind the leaders. He jumped into a share of the lead at the first in the back and was still travelling well in a share of the lead at the end of the back straight. He was challenged by two horses at 2 out, where he made a slight error and came down.
On his only start since at Down Royal, he started slowly and then made some headway down the back straight before weakened very quickly and looking an awkward ride before the home straight.
He's been dropped to 84 on the back of that run and has been given a 103-day break since. That suggests he may have had a problem at Down Royal which they have been working on since and hopefully he can return to the level of ability he was showing at Punchestown before falling.
For all that he handled the deep ground at Punchestown, his point win did come on good ground and I think this yielding ground may suit him better, so there could be improvement to come as a result of that.
It may turn out that Greenway Machine is just a weak finisher over any trip and running so poorly last time means he's only a 1pt bet but in such a weak race I think he's overpriced and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
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