Rhys Williams' Tuesday Racing Tips: Unexposed Dweller to get off the mark

Brighton
Our racing expert has one selection on Tuesday

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has one selection at Brighton.

"Sky Dweller has already run to a level that is very likely to make him competitive in this race and given that neither race he's contested was run to suit, more can be expected from him."

Looks open to more improvement than rivals

Brighton 13:30: Sky Dweller 1pt e/w 9/1

Uncertainty over exactly how much rain will hit Brighton today makes it difficult to be sure what the ground will be but siding with a horse that has at least handled some cut in the ground may be the best option.

The favourite for the seven-furlong maiden, Chief Of Staff, has done so but the presence of first time cheekpieces is a bit concerning. Touchwood has twice been a non runner due to the ground when it's been soft, while away from ground concerns, Miquelon and Cirrus have a bit to prove after their latest runs.

Next in the market is Sky Dweller and I think he's more of a danger than his price suggests. He was a bit slowly away on debut over a mile at Lingfield and raced quite keenly under restraint towards the back of the field through the early stages.

He was nudged along turning out of the back straight as the leading group started to get away from the rest of the field and he then got stuck in a pocket turning the final bend. Once getting a clear run about 1½ furlongs out, he stayed on well under mostly hands and heels to finish fourth.

Given that he was poorly positioned in a slowly-run race, this was a fairly promising debut from Sky Dweller to chase home three horses now rated 89 (carried a 7lb penalty), 82 and 77.

He put in another promising run at Chester last time, dropped back slightly in trip to 7½ furlongs. He was a bit awkwardly away from the stalls and was angled over to the inside rail in fifth early on. He was still in that position and nudged along entering the home straight and was angled to the outside to try to close. He ran on quite well but could never put in a challenge to the leaders and was beaten 4¾ lengths in fourth.

The pace significantly slowed in the middle part of this race and that completely played against Sky Dweller so it was no surprise that he couldn't make much ground in the closing stages. The second and third are now rated 83 and 82 (carried a 7lb penalty) respectively while the fifth won a novice race at Thirsk by four lengths next time.

Sky Dweller has already run to a level that is very likely to make him competitive in this race and given that neither race he's contested was run to suit, more can be expected from him.

The drop back to seven furlongs is a bit of a concern but the very stiff finish at Brighton can compensate for that to some extent and this could be a well-run race with quite a few of the opposition having led or raced very handily in the past.

With the four in front of Sky Dweller in the market all having something to prove, I think his chance has been underestimated and any 13/2 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 199.50pts
Returned: 216.80pts
P/L: +17.30pts

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