Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing action and fancies two longshots at Newcastle and Gowran to run better than the market expects.
"I think returning to the scene of her sole victory is a positive for Lasting Legacy and she's now 6lb lower than when she ran fairly well over a mile at the track two starts ago."
Returns to site of sole win
Newcastle 7.00: Lasting Legacy: 1pt win 14-1
Lasting Legacy was a surprise winner over today's C&D back in September 2019 and I think she could spring another, albeit slightly lesser, surprise in the closing race at Newcastle.
She put up a good performance in that victory, putting the race to bed just under a furlong out and maintaining the margin to the line. At that stage she looked the type to progress further on the all weather during the Autumn/Winter and beyond but that didn't happen.
She was off the track for nearly a year before returning to action at Haydock where she struggled. That was followed by a more encouraging run back at Newcastle over a mile. Having raced handily from the off, she went to the front with two furlongs to go. Although she was headed soon after, she was still close behind the leaders with a furlong to go but she was starting to fade when hampered inside the final furlong and dropped away quickly after.
She again showed some promise on her most recent start at Doncaster when stepped up to 1m2f but clearly didn't see out the trip.
I think returning to the scene of her sole victory is a positive for Lasting Legacy and she's now 6lb lower than when she ran fairly well over a mile at the track two starts ago. The race could set up quite well for her too as it looks likely to be fairly well run and she should be able to get a good position early on just behind the leaders.
Chris Fairhurst hasn't had a winner since October but he only has 9 horses in training and has had just 13 runners since so that's no concern and Lasting Legacy might be the horse to break that losing run.
Lightly raced 8yo to strike
Gowran 3.20: Misty Hollow: 0.5pt each way 20-1
Misty Hollow is very lightly raced for an 8yo but he showed that he still retains his ability when finishing fourth over fences at Navan last time.
He was dropped right out about six lengths behind the back of the pack at the start and was steadied further on the run to the first to be even further behind. He was constantly restrained to stay a bit detached from the field until latching on to the back of the pack after just over a circuit. He made smooth headway into contention on the run to 3 out and still appeared to be going easily on the run to 2 out, which he jumped as one of a leading line of five. However, once shaken up he didn't find as much as looked likely and dropped away to be beaten 9¾ lengths in fourth.
That was an encouraging run from Misty Hollow on his second run after coming back from a 638-day break. He returns to hurdle today and showed back in 2018 that he's capable of running well in this sphere when second to Battling Spirit off 96, the same as his official rating now.
A concern with Misty Hollow is that he looks a tricky ride, as Chris Timmons was clearly at pains to not risk letting him get too keen in amongst horses for much of the race at Navan and he looked quite awkward under pressure.
However, I think he has the talent to be competitive in this race, despite running from 1lb out of the handicap, and he looks overpriced at 20-1.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021