Rhys Williams' Tuesday Racing Tips: Staithes can spring a surprise

Fakenham
Our racing expert has one selection at Fakenham

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has one selection in the opening race at Fakenham.

"That was over 2m3½f and he now drops back to 2m, which looks likely to suit. He may also not have too much pressure for the lead and this is a track that favours front runners."

Tight track will suit front runner

Fakenham 14:10: Staithes 1pt win 35/1

Despite having had 13mm of rain on watered ground yesterday, it's surprisingly still good ground with some good to soft patches at Fakenham. Only four go to post in the opening selling handicap hurdle and Ar Mest is the odds-on favourite for the Moores. He will be tough to beat if at his best but it's a bit concerning that he's being dropped into selling company considering he's been running fairly well of late and the cheekpieces go on for the first time.

He will likely race fairly prominently while Ferrobin and Malina Ocarina are likely to be held up. That leaves Staithes, who is 8lb out of the handicap and the likely front runner. His career hasn't gone as anticipated. Much was expected of him early in his career but, following a point win on debut, he raced far too keenly in his only two start for Nicky Henderson.

He left Henderson after that and briefly went back pointing, where he fell at the second fence in a Larkhill restricted. He's since gone back under rules for Laura Horsfall, running twice over fences and once over hurdles. He was understandably outclassed in both starts over fences but did show that he still had a little ability and that he needed to go left-handed after his jumping display at Huntingdon.

That option was taken last time at Bangor, back over hurdles in a handicap for the first time. Racing off 92, Staithes led for a long way that day and was still in front turning into the home straight. He was only just over a couple of lengths down at 2 out when making a bad mistake and quickly dropped away after.

That was over 2m3½f and he now drops back to 2m, which looks likely to suit. He may also not have too much pressure for the lead and this is a track that favours front runners.

He does still have to show that he can find something in the closing stages of a race and he is 8lb out of the handicap (effectively running off 1lb higher than last time) so he could end up being well beaten again.

However, given the likely tactical setup and the level of willingness shown by his rivals in the past, I think he shouldn't be quite such a big price and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 111.50pts
Returned: 108.18pts
P/L: -3.12pts

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