Rhys Williams Tuesday Racing Tips: Outsiders Appeal In Exeter Opener

Exeter
Our racing expert has five bets for Exeter and Clonmel

Rhys Williams has analysed today's racing and has come up with 5 bets at Exeter and Clonmel.

"I think the heavy ground was against her that day and the ever-drying ground at Exeter will be far more suitable for her."

Front of the market looks vulnerable

Exeter 12.30: 0.5pt e/w Minim Mouse 35/1

With Henry Gondoff now out of the opening race at Exeter, I think the front of the market is worth opposing.

Valsheda shaped with a bit of promise on debut at Doncaster but he was beaten 29 lengths and he struck me as one for fences in the long term. Party Fuzz ran quite well at Warwick last time but the front pair in the market disappointed that day and the handicapper has seen fit to give Honorary Colonel, who finished 2¾ lengths behind Party Fuzz, an opening rating of 114 so it's not earth-shatteringly good form. I thought Falloway Dubreau looked in need of sharper test than this in points and he was comfortably held on rules debut in a bumper at Fakenham.

Kotkiwork is out of a useful mare in Kotkieglote and he's a very impressing looking horse but he did show absolutely nothing at Compiegne on debut so needs to have improved a lot since then. Johnny B was initially quite appealing at 20/1 but that has now gone and the 12/1 on offers looks about right.

I'm taking these horses on with a couple of ex-British pointers at big prices. Minim Mouse was inconsistent in points but she ran very well on her final start in that sphere at Larkhill when finishing second to No Limitations. That horse has since finished a close second in a hunter chase while the third, Always Lion, was rated 125 under rules.

Minim Mouse was then moved to Kayley Woollacott and she ran well on her first start under rules at Ludlow in a 3m maiden hurdle. She jumped quite clumsily for much of the race but was still travelling well on the very long run to 3 out before she got tired and faded to finish 14 lengths behind the winner in fourth.

I think the heavy ground was against her that day and the ever-drying ground at Exeter will be far more suitable for her. I also think this galloping track will suit her better and hopefully she will put in a better round of jumping. I think the market has underestimated her chance at 35/1.

Exeter 12.30: 0.5pt e/w Wick Green 50/1

Wick Green is another horse to have made the switch to racing under rules from points this season. Unlike Minim Mouse, he ran awfully on his only start under rules last time at Southwell. He never seemed to be travelling and was soon left behind in the back straight on the final circuit.

Prior to that, he had looked quite promising in points. He put up a very good performance when getting the better of Captain Buck's at Larkhill at the start of 2020. For all that rival isn't necessarily the heartiest in a battle, they did finish 20 lengths clear of some good pointers and this was a step up on the level of form that Wick Green had previously shown.

Following that, he stayed on strongly to beat Marten at Horseheath, taking advantage of a mistake from that rival at the last. That performance can be upgraded as I think the ground was softer than ideal for him that day.

It may be that he's just one of those horses that is much better in points with the steadier pace of those races than under rules. But since he's only had the one disappointment, running at a track that I think was too sharp for him and the wrong way round, there's a chance he could bounce back today on a right handed galloping track and the drying ground will suit him too. 50/1 is too big.

W/o the favourite market presents opportunities

Clonmel 14.25: 1pt win Mizuna 6/1 w/o the fav

Rather than advise an each way bet in a bad each way race, which would be even tougher to get on with shops closed and is damaging for accounts, I'm targeting the w/o the favourite market in the first race at Clonmel.

Ben Thomson is favourite in this market after running fairly well at Fairyhouse but he doesn't set a particularly high level to pass. Winter Castle is second favourite but she didn't show much at Cork and has left Joseph O'Brien.

It's the next two in the market that appeal at the prices. Mizuma didn't show much on debut at Tallow early last year but improved on that when shaping well at Curraghmore in October. Held up at the back of the field, he made an eye-catchingly big move on the outside on the run from 3 out to 2 out which took him from twelfth into fourth. He couldn't sustain that effort and came home 13½ lengths behind the winner.

The winner of that race has since finished second in a PTP bumper, the runner up won a maiden next time while the third was Pay The Piper who won at Wetherby off 129 yesterday.

Mizuma is out of a half sister to the likes of Rouge Et Blanc, Red Mix and Otchoa Rouge who all wanted trips short of 2m4f so it wouldn't be a surprise if he follows that trend and finds this test for more suitable than 3m in points, which could also be why he was being ridden with so much restraint for much of the race at Curraghmore. 6/1 underplays his chance in this market.

Clonmel 14.25: 1pt win Shumard 4/1 w/o the fav

Shumard is the other horse to appeal in this market. He made his debut in a bumper at Thurles in January and shaped much better than his finishing position suggests.

Held up for much of the race, he made smooth headway down the back straight on the final circuit and was still travelling very well turning the bend to go across the top of the course. However, he started to weaken soon after, while not being put under any pressure by his rider, and eventually finished 113 lengths behind the winner.

It may be that Shumard is simply a smooth traveller who does nothing under pressure but the 2m3½f test on soft to heavy ground at Thurles is a thorough test for young horses so it could be that he found this too much and today's sharper test will suit. The sixth, Dukes Mill, was beaten just over 50 lengths and has since run well in a mares maiden hurdle.

I think Shumard could be seen to much better effect today so 4/1 appeals in this market.

Rating drop looks a kind one

Clonmel 16.30: 1pt win Montys Meadow 16/1

Montys Meadow hasn't run under rules for 803 days but since then he's run well in open company in point to points.

He was unlucky to not finish closer at Aghabullogue when second to Lite Duties having been tightened up on the bend late on and he ran respectably after that at Tallow in atrocious conditions.

On his only start of the past Autumn, he won a novice riders Open at Rathcannon. He travelled well into contention on the run to 2 out and had got the better of Johnny Sue when that rival fell at the last. Montys Meadow had the race under control after that although he got a bit tired on the run in and only ended up winning by two lengths.

This was a good return to action and I think a repeat of that form would give him a chance today. When last seen over hurdles under rules he raced off 124 but he's now been dropped to 102 and I think that could be overly generous.

It should also be noted that he finished five lengths ahead of Macs Legend in the Open at Aghabullogue at the start of last year. That horse runs off 95 in the following handicap hurdle today and is 7/2 while Montys Meadow is 16/1 for this race.

I think the market is underestimating his chance and he's an appealing bet.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 33.00pts
Returned: 21.10pts
P/L: -11.90pts

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