Rhys Williams' Tuesday Racing Tips: Millicent to bounce back in more suitable scenario

Travelled strongly for a long way last time

Yarmouth 14:30: Harbour Project 1pt win 18/1

There weren't any positives to take from Harbour Project's starts on the all weather this year but his last two runs on turf have suggested he might be capable of winning a race off a lowly mark.

Cheekpieces went on for the first time at Bath over a mile two starts ago. He was frequently niggled along towards the back of the field and was then shaken along more vigorously early in the home straight. He didn't have the speed to make any sort of challenge but, having dropped to last with just over a furlong to go, he plugged on late to finish seventh.

Stepped up to 1m4f on his latest start at Ffos Las, he was held up in last and travelled better than he did at Bath. He was nudged along turning into the home straight and travelled well just behind the leading line with around 2½ furlongs to go. Switched widest, he made headway and looked to move into a narrow lead with just over a furlong to go but he wandered under pressure in the final furlong and dropped back in fourth at the line.

The way Harbour Project travelled through that race suggested that there could be a race in him off a low mark and the likely good pace today should suit. The cheekpieces go back on which may help him in the closing stages having appeared to lose focus at Ffos Las.

It may be that he's a horse who needs to stay in his comfort zone for a very long way to run well and that the drop back in trip will take him out of that sooner than ideal and he won't travel anywhere near as well but I think he has some potential to improve and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.

Back over a more suitable trip on quicker ground

Yarmouth 16:35: Millicent 1pt win 14/1

Since moving to Gary Moore from James Tate, I think Millicent hasn't had the opportunity to show her true ability due to a variety of factors and she could bounce back today.

On her first start for Moore at Kempton, she was poorly positioned given the slow pace and raced a bit keenly before finishing last of eight.

Next time at Lingfield, she was slightly hampered and squeezed for room on the final bend by the eventual winner which left Millicent racing very wide on the turn and she could only plug on into seventh.

Since then she's run on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy. She struggled in the heavy ground at Lingfield when a well beaten fifth over seven furlongs behind Bonus.

In both starts since over 1m2f, she's raced keenly and hasn't been able to put in any sort of challenge late on.

In the course of those five runs, Millicent has been dropped 17lb which I think is overly generous given either the ground, trip or pace has frequently been against her. The return to a straight mile on good ground should suit and the likely pace should be more suitable for her with a few typical front runners/very prominent racers in the field.

It might be that she's just regressing and will continue to do so or that she may ideally be suited by a further slight drop back in trip to seven furlongs but I think the market has underestimated her chance in a weak race. Any 10/1 or bigger appeals.