Rhys Williams' Tuesday Racing Tips: Lunar to leave rivals chasing her shadow

Extremely green on debut

Nottingham 14:25: Agilulf 0.5pt e/w 50/1

The likes of Euraquilo, Flaming Lord and Typewriter have shown obvious promise in their runs so far and the market hasn't missed that but there's a horse at a huge price who I think could be capable of taking a big step forward from his debut performance.

Agilulf made his debut over seven furlongs at Newcastle and he looked clueless throughout. He was awkwardly away from the stalls and had to be constantly niggled along towards the back of the main pack early on. He made some headway with around three furlongs to go but looked uncoordinated when asked for more effort and could never get competitive, finishing a well-beaten seventh.

It may end up being the case that Agilulf is a horse for middle-distance handicaps next season and he has to improve plenty from that bare form to challenge the market leaders but such was the greenness shown at Newcastle that it would be no surprise if he showed significant improvement today. I see him at Shabano being similar types in that aspect and one is 14/1 while the other is 50/1.

Agilulf might still be too green to show anything close to his true ability or he might just be awkward under pressure but given the potential for improvement, any 33/1 or bigger appeals.

Return to all weather a positive

Lingfield 17:05: Lunar Shadow 1pt win 7/1

Lunar Shadow has finished last on both starts this season on turf but sandwiched in between those runs was a good performance in defeat over today's C&D and a repeat of that would see her be competitive this afternoon.

She was held up about three quarters of the way down the field and was still there turning out of the back straight. Pushed along with three furlongs to go, she took a little while to hit top gear and had to be sharply angled to the inside entering the home straight to get a clear run. Once in the straight, she ran on well to finish third without ever challenging the front pair.

The winner of that race was Yagan who was completing a hat trick under a penalty and is now rated 8lb higher while the runner up, Keeper, won very easily next time and is now rated 7lb higher. The fourth, Roby Mill, has since finished third off a 2lb lower mark which the same drop that Lunar Shadow has had since that race.

Lunar Shadow shaped better than the result suggests on her last start at Pontefract as she was still in contention turning the final bend before looking awkward on the bend and finishing very weakly.

There is the obvious concern that she has a problem which caused her to stop so quickly and that could happen again today but her profile suggests she's better on the all weather so a return to the Polytrack should suit.

Given she has been keen before, a good pace would help her and I expect Alambrista will set at least an even tempo while Knight Of Kings wouldn't be suited by this turning into a test of speed so William Buick should be looking to press Alambrista to make sure it's a good pace.

With concerns over the attitude over some of her rivals and the suitability of this test for others, I think Lunar Shadow is overpriced and any 5/1 or bigger appeals.