Rhys Williams' Tuesday Racing Tips: Good Bye to pounce late

Exeter
Our racing expert has one selection at Exeter

Rhys Williams has one selection on Tuesday in the novices' selling hurdle at Exeter.

"Those tactics could allow Harry Skelton to stalk him for much of the race on Good Bye, if the horse is in the mood, and try to pounce late so Falberto doesn't have long enough to respond and battle back."

Stalk and pounce tactics required

Exeter 16:20: Good Bye 1pt win 5/2

Falberto is the short-priced favourite for the novices' selling hurdle at Exeter following a victory in a seller at Stratford last Monday. That was his first start for his new trainer and he was bought in for £9,000 to remain with him.

He was given an attacking ride from the front that day and showed plenty of resolution when challenged in the closing stages to hold off his rivals. The same tactics are likely to be used again today and he will be tough to beat but his main rival might be the one to benefit from such tactics.

Good Bye won a jumpers bumper during the winter at Lingfield and has shown some promise over hurdles at various times. His third start over hurdles caught the attention of the stewards and he ran well after that when third to Namib Dancer at Wincanton.

He ran quite well two starts ago at Plumpton on his second in a handicap. Held up, his jumping lacked fluency and he came under pressure after 3 out. He was still in seventh turning the final bend before running on strongly to finish third. Given that it was beneficial to race handily, his performance can be upgraded.

His most recent start at Fakenham was far less encouraging. He was pushed along going to the first and made a mistake and was always struggling, eventually finishing fifth.

Good Bye is inconsistent so it's difficult to be sure which version of him will turn up today. The blinkers that have been worn on his last two starts have been replaced by a visor, which he wore when running well in two jumpers bumpers, so that may spark him up again. It will also be a positive going right-handed, as he's tended to jump to the right in the past, and the drying ground will suit.

The way this race will be run could also play into his hands. Fergus Gregory is very likely to make plenty of use of Falberto and he's got one long run in him rather than having a turn of foot. Those tactics could allow Harry Skelton to stalk him for much of the race on Good Bye, if the horse is in the mood, and try to pounce late so Falberto doesn't have long enough to respond and battle back.

There is a chance that Good Bye will show no interest from the off again and run poorly but in the circumstances I think there's too much between the front pair in the market and he's a bet at 2/1 or bigger.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 73.00pts
Returned: 70.225pts
P/L: -2.775pts

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