Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has three selections at Lingfield and Newcastle.
"A repeat of the early speed he showed that day would be a significant positive for Black Hill Storm's chance with the chance to get to the front and control the pace from a good draw in stall two."
Can bounce back with a quicker start
Shamlaan is the favourite for this nursery and he ran well at Catterick last time after a slow start but it's a horse who finished behind him that day who appeals at the prices.
Black Hill Storm stumbled at the start which prevented him from repeating the early speed he showed at Bath and he had to work harder to get to the front. He looked to get a bit unbalanced on the undulations with two furlongs to go and drifted left and right under pressure. He kept running on for pressure but couldn't hold off the late challenges and finished third.
On his previous start at Bath, he was away quickly and soon in front travelling well. He gradually started to draw clear of the field from three furlongs out and was never in danger, winning by 4 ¾ lengths.
A repeat of the early speed he showed that day would be a significant positive for Black Hill Storm's chance with the chance to get to the front and control the pace from a good draw in stall two.
There is a worry that he could repeat the stumbling start as it's not the first time that it's happened and this is his third run in a short space of time so it's possible he might now be in need of a break but I think the market has overreacted to the defeat at Catterick and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.
Far more encouragement on second start
Emblem Empire and Gaassee dominate the market in this novice race, with the latter's price having continued to shorten this morning following support in the overnight market suggesting that he may be working well before his debut.
Emblem Empire was one for the obvious eyecatchers brigade on debut at Kempton but it's a horse who finished one place behind him that day who appeals given the prices.
Master Of Souls was well beaten on debut at Chester when very slowly away but he improved significantly on that when third at Kempton having had a wind op in the interim.
He raced prominently early on and was nudged along to move into a close second leaving the back straight and avoid being caught three wide on the bend. Pushed along with 2½ furlongs to go, he initially raced a bit gawkily and was soon outpaced by the leader but he appeared to switch on when joined by Emblem Empire a furlong out and ran on to finish third, 1¼ lengths behind that rival.
That was over a mile and I think the step up to 1m2f today will suit Master Of Souls as looked short of speed and appeared to have quite a bit left at the finish at Kempton. He may also be mentally sharper for that experience which could bring further improvement.
It may be that Emblem Empire improves too and makes it 2-0 or that Gaassee has plenty of ability but I think Master Of Souls could be more of a danger than the market suggests and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.
Returning to a suitable trip
Katie Scott has had three winners from her last four runners and I think Rue De La Gaite has a better chance of making that four from five than the market suggests, even after her price shortening a little this morning.
She's shown ability for various trainers in her career so far and was bought for 3,500gns to join Scott after finishing last of eleven at Kempton for Tom Clover.
Her first run for her new trainer came over 1m4f at Newcastle and the trip unsurprisingly proved too far for her as she finished a well beaten sixth.
She showed more of her latest start over 1m2f at the same track when she made headway to track the leaders with three furlongs to go. She came under pressure and still looked in contention for a place two furlongs out before dropping away late on.
Both of those runs were over unsuitable trips and Rue De La Gaite has been dropped 6lb in the process. She now returns to a suitable trip of a mile and that could bring a revival.
There is a slight concern that the pace might not be as strong as ideal as I think she would want a strongly run mile to be at her best but I think she's capable of running better than she has been of late and this isn't a particularly strong race so any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
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