Rhys Williams' Tuesday Racing Tips: Al to improve significantly on second start

Ayr
Our racing expert has four selections on Tuesday

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has four selections.

"Given how far behind he was even with two furlongs to go, Classy Al did well to finish that close to the winner and it was a performance that suggested he could improve a lot next time."

Quicker ground to bring about a revival

Southwell 14:00: Triplicate 1pt win 14/1

Triplicate comes into this race on the back of some runs last season for Joseph O'Brien that look extremely unappealing but I wouldn't be surprised if he showed far more now that he's back on good ground.

Having started his career on the flat with Aidan O'Brien, he then moved to Joseph to go hurdling and showed a very good level of ability early on in his time with him. He won twice over Galway and Limerick and finished second in the 2018 Royal Bond on good ground.

He ran respectably in defeat in two Grade 1s after that but he hasn't looked the same horse since. He was well held in a Grade 2 hurdle on his first start the following season and was then beaten 19½ lengths or more in four chases on ground ranging from soft to heavy.

He ran ok on his first start of last season at Galway on soft ground before his form declined again in three runs on soft to heavy or heavy ground.

Triplicate's action suggests that he wants to be nowhere near that sort of ground so it's no surprise that he ran so poorly on it and that his best form in Ireland came on good ground.

It's likely that he's moved to Jonjo O'Neill due to the greater chance of getting good ground in Britain and he gets that ground today so I think he could bounce back and be more competitive than the market suggests.

There is of course the chance that he's just not the same horse that he once was and that his rating will need to drop a bit more before he becomes competitive again but given the potential for a revival, any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Return to more suitable distance

Salisbury 16:30: Bronze River 1pt win 12/1

Bronze River showed a generally consistent level of form throughout his time with Andrew Balding as a two and three-year-old. He was gradually stepped up in trip towards the end of that spell with Balding, running quite well over 1m4f on a couple of occasions.

He was subsequently bought for £20,000 at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and joined Roger Teal for whom he's run four times. He shaped quite well on his first start for Teal over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton when fifth behind runaway winner Arij but it's been downhill since then.

He was given a poor ride by his inexperienced apprentice jockey next time over the same C&D. Having been pushed along to track the leader, he then got into a battle with that rival before sending Bronze River for home leaving the back. Unsurprisingly, Bronze River had nothing left come the home straight and he dropped away tamely to finish last.

Bronze River got into another battle for the lead early on in his next run at Windsor and raced quite keenly. He continued to have either the sole or shared lead until just over two furlongs outs when he weakened away to finish eighth.

He was dropped back to a mile on his latest start and it was no surprise that he didn't have the pace for that trip, never being remotely involved and finishing a well-beaten tenth.

On all four of those starts, Bronze River wore a hood and that's now off so it wouldn't be a surprise if he suddenly sparks back to life for the removal of that, particularly as he never wore one in his time with Andrew Balding. He also steps back up in trip to a far more suitable distance and has a more experienced apprentice in the saddle today.

Bronze River can be a bit awkwardly away and he didn't always look the most willing in a finish in his time with Balding and there is the chance that he's just had a problem that means he's not as good as he was.

However, these circumstances will give him a much better chance of showing his true ability than in any of the previous four starts for Teal and he's dropped 9lb in that time to 69 so any 8/1 or bigger appeals.

Can bounce back for return to all-weather

Wolverhampton 17:10: Chipiron 1pt win 14/1

It may turn out that Live Your Dream is a class above his rivals in this staying handicap but this is four-and-a-half furlongs further than he's run over before and one his rivals at a double-figure price makes some appeal.

Chipiron was tailed off last time at York but he's always been a better horse on the all-weather and I think he can bounce back today.

Having been claimed after finishing third at Fontainebleau in September last year, he made his first start for Ivan Furtado over this C&D at the start of this year. He raced either in last or second last for much of the race under his inexperienced rider and was still travelling well in fifth shortly before entering the home straight. Angled to the outside, he was nudged along and ran on well to only be beaten a length in third.

He ran well again back down in trip at Southwell next time before never being competitive in his next two starts over 2m at Kempton and 1m4f at Wolverhampton, the latter being a slowly-run race that was never going to suit over that trip.

Chipiron looked a tricky ride early in his career in France and that's never changed so he does have to be gently coerced to show his ability in a race and he has a habit of hanging under pressure which doesn't help his chance.

However, I think the return to the C&D over which he ran well off a 3lb higher mark in January will suit and this should be a fairly well run race with Cloud Thunder and Margaret Dumont in the field. The cheekpieces also go back on Chipiron for the first time since his debut and hopefully they will help in the closing stages.

There is a chance that he could run another shocker as at York but I think he should be closer to the next three in the market behind Live Your Dream and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.

Promise when extremely green on debut

Ayr 17:15: Classy Al 1pt e/w 28/1

It seemed baffling that Tribal Art wasn't put in as favourite for this race in the first place given the very obvious promise of his debut and it's no surprise that the overnight and early morning market has well and truly taken care of that rick.

Given his initial market position there is also no 'without Tribal Art' market, which would have been ideal for me, but there is still an appealing bet on another horse whose clear promise on debut has been missed by the market.

Classy Al made his debut at the end of last month over six furlongs at Redcar. He looked very green early on and was soon detached from the rest of the field. He looked to be struggling badly at halfway and likely to be tailed off but he started to close with about two furlongs to go. He was still racing awkwardly at that stage but he had passed one rival with a furlong to go before running on strongly late on to finish ninth, beaten six lengths.

Given how far behind he was even with two furlongs to go, Classy Al did well to finish that close to the winner and it was a performance that suggested he could improve a lot next time, particularly over further and he now steps up two furlongs in trip to a mile.

He does have quite a bit to find on the bare form of that race and he might still be green today so it might be that he makes significant improvement further down the line.

However, if he does improve as much as might be anticipated given the greenness shown at Redcar then I think he can be more competitive than his big price suggests and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 173.50pts
Returned: 183.97pts
P/L: +10.47pts

Daily Offer - Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples

“Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.”

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open your account today using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn - £/€20 Back in cash if your bet loses
Bet Now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles