"The way that Papas Boy travelled through that race suggests that the likely tactical scenario today is more likely to suit him than Hey Teacher."
Rhys Williams has analysed Thursday's racing and has two selections at Ffos Las and Beverley...
Travelled better than the fav at Bath
Ffos Las 13:00: Papas Boy 2pt win 16/5
A weak novice median auction race opens the card at Ffos Las and I'm taking on the very short priced favourite, Hey Teacher.
He finished second on his second start at Bath last time, one place ahead of Papas Boy who showed improved form that day. Of the three horses that reoppose from that Bath race (Scherbobalob being the other), Papas Boy travelled by far the best for a long way. Hey Teacher was already being niggled with half a mile to go while Scherbobalob came under driving soon after. Papas Boy continued to travel smoothly until being pushed along and switched inside with around two furlongs to go. He edged left under pressure and almost ended up running into the inside rail before finishing third, just three quarters of a length behind Hey Teacher.
The way that Papas Boy travelled through that race suggests that the likely tactical scenario today will probably suit him more than Hey Teacher. Due to Hey Teacher looking a grinding stayer that day, I expect David Probert will make the running on him and try to turn it into a test. In doing so, he could end up giving Jordan Williams and Papas Boy the perfect lead. If Hey Teacher isn't quick enough, or is too idle to turn it into a test of stamina and it becomes a sprint finish, that would suit Papas Boy and it could allow him to pounce late on.
It is worrying that he's edged left under pressure on his last two starts, particularly if the field comes down the middle of the track, and it could be that Hey Teacher was still green at Bath and will take another step forward from that. But I think the market is a reflection of the name of the trainers next to these two horses rather than their meeting at Bath, so Papas Boy makes plenty of appeal at the prices. Any 2/1 or bigger appeals.
Chance to make all back down in trip
Beverley 16:55: Bit Of A Quirke 1pt win 8/1
After Bit Of A Quirke finished second over this C&D in May, I thought an attacking front running ride over this trip might be ideal for him these days. Today he gets the opportunity to race over the trip for the first time since then.
When finishing second over C&D, he got into a battle for the lead and they raced a long way clear of the rest of the field. While the horse that took him on for the lead dropped right away in the straight, Bit Of A Quirke kept battling on under pressure and was only picked off by Zihaam in the final furlong.
He won next time at Leicester back up in trip over 1m2f and then ran well again over that trip at this track when second to Colony Queen, who has won twice since and is now rated 12lb higher.
He's was a bit disappointing on his next two starts, although it may be that going left-handed at Pontefract wasn't ideal for him and he was headed early on and then hung right late on when well beaten on his latest start at this track.
Unlike on that occasion, Bit Of A Quirke should be able to lead without too much trouble today and Andrew Mullen can set a good pace to make use of the horse's proven stamina. He will also have a rail immediately on his right the whole way, which hasn't been the case on his last two starts, and that will help him.
It is concerning how far below expectations he's run on his last two starts but I think this scenario gives Bit Of A Quirke a good opportunity to bounce back. Any 13/2 or bigger appeals.