Rhys Williams' Thursday Racing Tips: Overpriced pair in Chelmsford nursery

Chelmsford
Our racing expert has two selections on Thursday

Rhys Williams has analysed Thursday's racing and has two selections at Chelmsford...

"Considering he was hampered at the start, raced far keener than ideal early on and didn't get a completely clear run late on, this suggests that Lucky Man could be capable of running to a level in the mid-70s."

Good run after being hampered at the start last time

Chelmsford 16:50: Lucky Man 1pt win 7/2

While writing up a selection, the last thing you want to see is Hugh Taylor having tipped that horse as it tends to result in all value going out of the price, the horse no longer being a selection and you've wasted your time.

However, in the case of Lucky Man in the opening nursery at Chelmsford, he was overpriced to such an extent in a weak contest that I think the market is still underestimating his chance.

On debut on soft ground at Lingfield, he was slowly away before making some headway to track the leaders two furlongs out. From that point, he couldn't close any further and gradually dropped away late on while showing some greenness.

Lucky Man was stepped up to six furlongs for his next start at Newmarket and after being hampered at the start, he raced extremely keenly under restraint through the first half of the race. Understandably, he had little left late on after that and finished well held in seventh.

His latest run at Windsor was more encouraging after once again being hampered coming out of the stalls. He raced very keenly under restraint towards the back of the field through the first couple of furlongs before starting to make some headway with just over two furlongs to go. He had his path blocked on a couple of occasions and had to be switched widest of all to get a clear run before coming home in sixth.

The winner of that maiden was Jazz Club, who is now rated 100. The third, Rose Barton, had run well in defeat in a strong novice race over the same C&D on debut, while the fourth and fifth are now rated 78 and 74 respectively. Buxted Reel finished 3½ lengths behind Lucky Man and has since finished second in a nursery off 67, and Odisseo won a nursery off 58 next time and is now rated 64.

Considering he was hampered at the start, raced far keener than ideal early on and didn't get a completely clear run late on, this suggests that Lucky Man could be capable of running to a level in the mid-70s. Therefore, he appeals in this race as he's able to race off 65 (officially 3lb well in as his rating has been raised to 68 on collateral form) and the drop back to five furlongs is likely to suit too.

The wide draw is stall 11 is a concern and there's a worry that he could be a shade slowly away, which has played a part in him being hampered before, and that could leave him in a tricky position.

However, I think he has the potential to be a class above this field and even with those doubts, any 3/1 or bigger appeals.

Return to five furlongs to suit

Chelmsford 16:50: Reckon I'm Hot 0.5pt win 20/1

At a much bigger price in the same race, I think Reckon I'm Hot could be capable of being more competitive than his price suggests now that he's stepping back down to a more suitable trip.

He made his debut over five furlongs at Newbury and was soon travelling well in a prominent position. He was in a leading line of five with two furlongs to go but after being shaken along, he couldn't go with the leaders and eventually dropped away to finish last. That was a very strong maiden with the winner, Berkshire Shadow, going on to win the Coventry while the second and fourth are now rated 88 and 93 respectively.

Reckon I'm Hot ran over five furlongs again on his next start at Lingfield and ran fairly well in finishing fifth. He had to be nudged along early to stay in touch and he then travelled strongly going down the side of the course tracking the leaders. He was a shade awkward on the bend but kept going well enough in the home straight to finish fifth.

He was gelded after that and his two runs since have been less promising. He appeared to not handle the track at Brighton when beaten fifteen lengths but he did at least show more on his last start at Epsom despite being beaten 24 lengths in last.

That was over seven furlongs and he raced very keenly early on in a prominent position. He was still handy with three furlongs to go before dropping away and not looking comfortable on the camber.

That suggested that he may still have some ability but that they were running him over completely the wrong trip and a drop back to five furlongs could see him in a better light.

It is a worry that he's looked a bit awkward on the left-handed bend on a couple of occasions and he's small so it might be that there's not much physical improvement to come from him but if he can get back to the level he showed at Lingfield then he could be competitive in this and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 330.00pts
Returned: 409.16pts
P/L: +79.16pts

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