Rhys Williams has analysed Thursday's racing and has one selection at Newmarket...
"With regular front runner Mountain Brave in the field today, I think both may end up tracking that rival and that could make Mountain Brave more dangerous than the market suggests."
May face less pressure for the lead
Mountain Brave is inconsistent but I think she has a chance of bouncing back from a below-par effort last time in a race where she may not face too much pressure for the lead.
While Zim Baby led on her last start and Gale Force Maya has made the running in the past, I think both of those are more ideally suited by tracking the pace. In the race they both contested at Pontefract, there was no confirmed front runner and Graham Lee had the chance to go to the front on Gale Force Maya but chose to take a lead from Zim Baby who was then left to control the pace.
With regular front runner Mountain Brave in the field today, I think both may end up tracking that rival and that could make Mountain Brave more dangerous than the market suggests.
After winning at Chester four starts ago, the trainer's rep reported that she benefitted from being able to dominate from the front and that's something that she was unable to do at Doncaster last time when racing in a leading line of four before dropping away late on.
On her previous start at Salisbury, Mountain Brave was able to get to the front early on before being joined at halfway by Quickstep Lady, who reopposes today. She saw off that rival and was still in front with half a furlong to go before being caught and she was tightened up a little late on before finishing fourth.
The winner of that race, Chocoya, has won again since while the third, Silent Flame, finished second to Gale Force Maya at Pontefract despite being unfavourably positioned.
Mountain Brave races off a 1lb lower mark today than she did at Salisbury and the possible tactical scenario outlined above gives her a chance of bouncing back and showing her best. Any 9/1 or bigger appeals.
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