Rhys Williams' Thursday Racing Tips: Flaw in pricing of PTP bumper

'Pricing by numbers' creates opportunity

Exeter 19:55: Hinterleitenweg 1pt win 13/2

The closing point to point bumper at Exeter is the weakest renewal of the race in its five-year history. Only five go to post, only one of them has won a race and all of them have only run in point to point bumpers. Any connections with a horse that has finished in the first three in a maiden since October 2019 and is going to run in a point on quick ground soon rather than this has missed out on a great opportunity.

Crews Pitch is the aforementioned sole winner in the field and that victory came on his second start at Revesby Park. Always handy in the six-runner contest, he comfortably went clear on his nearest pursuer in the closing stages to win by six lengths. The concern is this is a far different track to Revesby Park, which is very sharp, and the runner up had been beaten further by two of Crews Pitch's rivals at Barbury Castle earlier in the season. In these races, previous winners and/or horses trained by licenced trainers are always put at the head of the market, irrespective of what they have actually achieved, and I think that's exactly what has happened here as that was a weak race he won.

Fountains Chief is second favourite and is the mount of record-breaking amateur Will Biddick. Fountains Chief ran quite well on debut at Barbury Castle, even though he was beaten 15 lengths, and showed some promise again at Chaddesley Corbett five days ago. He was outpaced turning out of the back straight and then stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth. The worry with him is that he did race only five days ago and, if this turns tactical, whether he has the necessary turn of foot. I think he's about the right price given what he's shown on the track.

The next two in the market are Rose Above It and Hinterleitenweg. These two faced each other at Barbury Castle on their most recent outings back in December and, although the market has the former at a shorter price, I think the latter shaped more promisingly with today in mind. In a steadily run race, she was held up and raced keenly through the early stages while Rose Above It was far more prominently positioned. Hinterleitenweg turned into the back straight in last of the main group and was then briefly pushed along to take a gap on the inside to move closer and track Rose Above It. She continued to track that rival as he turned out of the back straight in front and was then bumped along to move upsides turning towards the home straight. Both battled on well under pressure, with Rose Above It just having more in the tank and finishing second while Hinterleitenweg finished 1½ lengths in behind in third.

Rose Above It had the advantage of having had a previous run this season while Hinterleitenweg was having her first start since the same race the previous season. It may be the combination of that, the early keenness and being less favourably positioned given the pace told in the closing stages.

The form of that race is nothing special but neither is this race and I think she may be open to more improvement than her rivals, particularly if settling better early on. She also has the added advantage that, while only novice riders can claim in points, Matt Hampton can claim 5lb in this which is generous given he's ridden 71 winners in points and hunter chases.

The potential for her to be keen again in the early stages is slightly concerning is the small field but I expect Crews Pitch and Rose Above It will both want to be handy and Fountains Chief doesn't want a slowly run race but hopefully it won't be run at a crawl. I think the quicker ground should be no issue for her price of 13/2 looks based on bookmakers pricing by form figures rather than ability.