Rhys Williams Thursday Racing Tips: Diamond a cut above at Carlisle

Wincanton
Our racing expert has two selections at Carlisle and Wincanton

Rhys Williams landed an 11/8 winner with his Wednesday selections and has two fancies for today's racing at Carlisle and Wincanton

"The majority of this field either have very little ability or have handicaps on their mind so they won't be good enough or won't have the intention of being anywhere near Ishkhara Lady at the finish. One horse that neither of those comments applies to is Who Told You"

Burrows to break her duck

Carlisle 13.00: 1pt win Burrows Diamond 5/2

Foster'sisland has looked a different horse in his last two starts to the one that had run over hurdles four times prior. Following a 21-length victory at Carlisle, he went to Newcastle under a 7lb penalty and won by 20 lengths but only because of Burrows Diamond falling at the last.

Burrows Diamond tracked the leaders through the first half of the race before being pushed along at the end of the back straight. She moved into a share of third at 2 out before coming under pressure as she tried to catch Foster'sisland on the very long run to the last. She managed to get to within about a length-and-a-half but her rider had seemingly accepted she couldn't get any closer when she reached for the last and took a heavy fall.

It is a bit worrying that she took such a heavy fall but that connections are happy to run her just 12 days later suggests she isn't suffering any ill effects of that.

She's been put up 3lb to 97 which I think is a lenient decision by the handicapper. When she raced on the outer track at Carlisle over 2m1f three starts ago, she shaped like she was better than her rating of 96 when sent clear of her rivals too soon and the Newcastle run confirmed that suggestion.

Although she is favourite, I think they haven't made her short enough and any 2/1 or bigger appeals.

Opportunity in w/o fav market

Wincanton 17.00: 1pt win Who Told You w/o the favourite 7/2

Ishkhara Lady is currently the 1/5 favourite for the mares' novices' hurdle at Wincanton and rightly so given her bumper form. Rather than trying to find something to oppose her with, I think the w/o the favourite market presents an opportunity.

The majority of this field either have very little ability or have handicaps on their mind so they won't be good enough or won't have the intention of being anywhere near Ishkhara Lady at the finish. One horse that neither of those comments applies to is Who Told You, who comes into this race on the back of a good run at Exeter.

She led from the off and was still travelling well in a narrow lead turning into the home straight. Nudged along going to 3 out, she jumped that hurdle in front and still had a narrow lead at 2 out but she was headed between the last two and eventually finished 7¾ lengths behind the winner in third.

This was an encouraging run from Who Told You, who had an unfortunate experience on her previous run at the track, and showed that she still retained the ability she showed in points.

While I'm not necessarily sure that she has the ability of some of her rivals outside of Ishkhara Lady, I think the circumstances today are in her favour. She will very likely be ridden handily again and that is a big positive in novices'/maiden hurdles over this distance at Wincanton. She also has hurdling experience and jumped well at Exeter. The range of hurdling proficiency is often very wide in these events so that slickness will help her chance.

She also showed that this distance will suit her, something that I'm not certain is the case for So Said I who is the 1/2 favourite in this market. While she has looked to have a fair level of ability in bumpers, she's looked in need of a greater test of stamina so I'm not sure that sub-2m around Wincanton will see her at her best.

I think the front pair in this market should be closer together and any 5-2 or bigger underplays Who Told You's chance in it.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 38.00pts
Returned: 27.725pts
P/L: -10.275pts

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