Rhys Williams' Thursday Racing Tips: Dancing King to get back to winning ways

Newmarket
Our racing expert has two selections on Thursday

Rhys Williams has analysed Thursday's racing and has two selections at Carlisle and Newmarket.

"On his previous start at Doncaster, Dancing King looked a strong stayer who lacked a turn of foot so the pace of that race at Ascot and being hampered when starting to wind up to make his effort played against him."

Stiff track to suit

Carlisle 13:00: Ravenscraig Castle 1pt win 5/1

Ravenscraig Castle looked an obvious type to improve as a three-year-old when racing last season and although his mark of 69 only looks fair on the bare form, I think the decision from connections to run him three times inside a month last season could pay off.

He was clearly very green on debut at Ayr and was pushed along for much of the race. He eventually started to realise what he was supposed to be doing two furlongs out and ran on well late on to finish seventh.

He was stepped up to 1m2f for his next start at Pontefract and still looked green in the early stages. He raced at the back of the field in a slowly-run race and was duly outpaced when the tempo lifted just before the home straight. He plugged on late to finish third while never remotely being in contention.

Ravenscraig Castle was dropped back to a mile at Haydock, a track that seemed unlikely to suit, for his final start as a two-year-old. Having raced in midfield, he was outpaced early in the straight before running on well late on to finish fourth.

Physically he looked a long term prospect so I expect he's started to fill out and strengthen up in the 265 days he's been off the track. He also looked mentally immature last season so I'm hoping that he's much sharper on that front today.

The stiff track should suit him given he looked a strong stayer last season and I think this race should be at least fairly well run which will also help his cause as he wouldn't want it to turn into a test of speed.

It may turn out that he wants further than 1m3f, even on this track, and that he will only start to show his full ability over thorough staying trips so this might be a sighter before moving up in trip.

However, in a race where most of his rivals are either exposed, inconsistent or unproven at this trip, I think Ravenscraig Castle should be closer to the front pair in the market and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.

Better than the bare result last time

Newmarket 13:50: Dancing King 1pt win 9/1

Stowell put in an eyecatching performance in the Queen's Vase but the market clearly hasn't missed that whereas I think it has missed the effort of one of his rivals who finished behind him that day.

Dancing King was shaken along early on from his inside draw but couldn't get a prominent position and had towards the back of the field on the inside in a slowly-run race. He was still there turning the final bend where he was hampered by Ruling and had to be steadied. He kept responding well to pressure in the home straight but lacked the speed to get competitive and finished eighth, 2¼ lengths behind Stowell.

On his previous start at Doncaster, Dancing King looked a strong stayer who lacked a turn of foot so the pace of that race at Ascot and being hampered when starting to wind up to make his effort played against him.

There's a slight concern that today's race might not be overly strongly run either if Gear Up is left alone in front but it's possible that Yibir could at least press him and Dancing King has made the running before so, given he should be aware of the danger that his stablemate could pose if getting an uncontested lead, I expect Franny Norton to have Dancing King handy if it is steadily run.

I think the market has underestimated the potential for further improvement from Dancing King and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 209.50pts
Returned: 223.30pts
P/L: +13.80pts

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