Rhys Williams' Thursday Racing Tips: Coffee a class above her rivals

Very promising hurdling debut

Warwick 13:00: Cup Of Coffee 2pt win 11/4

It's no surprise to find Cup Of Coffee at the head of the market for the opening mares' novices' hurdle at Warwick but I thought that she would be nearer 5/4 than 11/4 given the ability she's shown compared to her rivals.

She was well held in a good bumper on debut at Ludlow when trained by Richard Bandey and she was in the process of improving from that on her first start for Sam Drinkwater at Hereford before she clipped heels and fell in a race won by the now 135-rated hurdle Dobryn.

Cup Of Coffee was in the process of stepping up on that again on her hurdling debut at Catterick when she fell at 2 out. She raced in midfield and her jumping wasn't too fluent early on before improving halfway down the back straight. She travelled very strongly in a line of three behind the leading pair turning into the home straight and she had eased into a share of the lead when diving at 2 out and coming down.

The winner of that race, Anythingforlove, is now rated 129 over hurdles while the runner up, Sashenka, is now rated 116 and I expect that she would be much shorter than 11/4 if running in this race.

There is the concern that Cup Of Coffee wasn't seen again last season but if may be that connections didn't want to waste her novice status towards the back end of the season.

The forecast rain won't be a concern for her and if she repeats the level of ability that she showed at Catterick and completes the course then her rivals will have to improve on what they have shown to have any chance of challenging her so she's a strong bet at the prices. Any 2/1 or bigger appeals.

Potential to improve if jumping sharpens up

Warwick 13:00: Merry Mistress 1pt win 5/1

Ginger Du Val is currently second favourite for this race but she has only achieved a moderate level over hurdles and has to carry a penalty.

Blue Bikini and Whispering Gypsy are next in. The former would have a chance if repeating the level of her Taunton run and this is a more suitable track for her than Sedgefield but I think she benefitted from a good ride at Taunton staying wide throughout in a race where the first three took that path and this is her hurdling debut so it's an unknown over how she will jump. Whispering Gypsy has shown ability earlier in her career but it's clearly a big concern that she's bled on her last two starts and run significantly below that level accordingly.

Fifth in is Merry Mistress, who is having her first start for David Dennis, and I think she could be more of a danger to Cup Of Coffee than any of the aforementioned trio if her hurdling sharpens up.

She looked promising when winning a heavy ground bumper at Hereford on debut but she was a bit disappointing in her next two starts in stronger company.

She ran better in a bumper at Cheltenham on her fourth start and she's run better than the result suggests on both starts over hurdles.

On hurdling debut at Worcester, she often jumped too big over the hurdles but made headway towards the end of the back straight and travelled smoothly into a share of second turning into the home straight. She had moved into a leading line of three at 3 out when she reached for the hurdle and landed very awkwardly, almost getting rid of Tom Bellamy. Her chance of winning was gone after that but she kept plugging away to finish fourth.

Her jumping often failed to convince on her latest start over hurdles at Uttoxeter but she again showed promise. She was still travelling well in fourth going to 3 out and after being driven along, she approached 2 out in a share of second but made a mistake and landed flat-footed. She was in a bit tight at the last and dropped away on the run in to finish fifth.

I think that race was deeper on quality than the race today and the forecast rain may help her given how well she ran on debut in testing conditions.

There is a worry that she will jump quite poorly again and that won't allow her to show her true ability but at her best I think she could be the biggest danger to the favourite. Any 5/1 or bigger appeals.

Much lower hurdles mark

Warwick 14:35: Al Roc 1pt win 9/1

It's no surprise that money has come for La Domaniale as she looks to take advantage of a mark 13lb below the one she was initially given after winning on debut at Vichy. She shaped with promise last time at Perth when running well despite making many mistakes and the yard is going well so she's likely to run well but I don't see any edge in her price now.

It's another horse to have come from France that I think is being underestimated by the current market. Al Roc's only start for Richard Newland last season came in the Portman Cup and he was outclassed but he did travel well until halfway down the back on the final circuit and he jumped and looked to hang left which suggests that a return to a left-handed track will suit him.

Prior to joining Newland, he had shown a good level of ability in France for Yannick Fouin. His best form was over fences but he did run well in a 2m3½f handicap at Auteuil in March last year when finishing second having been given plenty to do and he ran quite well in a Listed handicap hurdle at Compiegne over that considering that track would have been much sharper than ideal for him.

Due to the difference between his achievements over hurdles and fences in France, Al Roc has a 25lb lower mark over hurdles than fences and whereas races over hurdles in France were often unsuitable tests for him, I think the 2m5f today on softening ground will be more suitable for him so he could improve on what he showed over hurdles in France. He's also had a wind op since his last start at Taunton which could bring improvement too.

It may be that this is a starting point for him on the road to a run in something like the Grand Sefton and he will need the run but I think the market has overlooked his chance and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.

More in hand than margin suggests on point debut

Warwick 16:20: Lyrical Genius 1pt win 9/2

Although there are only four runners, it's quite an interesting bumper that ends the card at Warwick.

Fine By Me was narrowly denied on debut at Worcester but I'm not convinced by the strength of that race. The same can be said of the bumper that Stanley Pincombe finished third in at Kempton on debut as that now looks a bit weaker than it did at the time. I also have a slight doubt over whether a small field will see him in the best light.

Ted's Friend showed promise on debut at this track and followed that with victory at Newton Abbot but he has to carry a penalty for that.

The other runner is Lyrical Genius and I think he could be more of a danger than the market suggests. He was a winner of a maiden at Dingley on debut where I thought he was far more superior to his rivals than the margin of victory suggests.

Always handy in a well-run race, he was third in a breakaway group of four going down the back for the final time when he jumped into a rival at the second in the back straight. He made a mistake at the next and was nudged along but a good jump at the next took him to the front. He went a length clear at 2 out and was only pushed along hands and heels to get the better of his two nearest rivals but he ran very green approaching the last. That gave the others a squeak and he continued to run green on the run in but kept going well enough to win by three lengths.

His performance on the clock compared well to the Restricted that was won by the 113-rated chaser Indirocco and the Conditions race won by Hadmeathello and that was despite Lyrical Genius being green.

While I think Lyrical Genius is more of a long term prospect as he might still be green today and want more of a test of stamina, I think he showed a level of ability at Dingley that can make him competitive in a race of this quality and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.