Tony Calvin Tips

She only had one run last season and finished tailed off at Hereford. Wind surgery followed and she returned this season over fences at Cheltenham where she once again ran poorly.

She showed a little more at Taunton, where the fences being omitted in the back straight helped, but ran badly again last time at Huntingdon where her jumping was poor.

In all four runs since joining Venetia Williams, Fally Jem has not worn blinkers. When racing in France, the application of blinkers resulted in significant improvement from Fally Jem. In her final year with Carlos and Yann Lerner, the blinkers were taken off at Compiegne and she duly ran awfully, that run coming in between two good runs in handicaps at Auteuil with the blinkers on.

Fally Jem also looked far more at home over hurdles than fences in France, and even her jumping of French hurdles was poor at times, so the return to hurdles in a positive for her chances too.

She races off a 5lb higher mark than her official rating and I think the combination of that and her poor form since moving from France has caused her big price. The trip is an unknown but given the potential for a significant revival with the blinkers reapplied, she looks overpriced at 25/1.

Ideal setup for True Hero

Southwell 15.25: 1pt win True Hero 3/1

True Hero gained his first victory since October 2018 when winning over C&D two starts ago, with three of today's rivals behind him.

He travelled strongly just behind the leader that day and cruised into the lead before just having to be driven out to win by 1½ lengths.

He's since been beaten at Wolverhampton when caught late on by Nellie French but I think a return to Fibresand and the pace of this race will suit him.

This race is likely to be very strongly run with Blackcurrent, Jeans Maite, Red Stripes and Angel Eyes all contenders for the front running role. That is ideal for True Hero who I think needs a lead for as long as possible as he doesn't seem to do much when in front.

He does face Blackcurrent on 9lb worse terms for a 1¾ lengths margin over that horse in his win but I think True Hero is on the way back up (rated 81 at his peak in 2019) and under these circumstances, 3/1 appeals.