Rhys Williams' Monday Racing Tips: Sovereign to rule over his rivals

Chance to bounce back in very weak race

Windsor 17:05: Sovereign State 1.5pt win 10/1

Glamorous Crescent has been backed into favourite for the opening race at Windsor but it's a horse who finished ahead of her earlier in the season who appeals at a much bigger price.

Sovereign State finished 2¾ lengths and two places ahead of Glamorous Crescent on soft ground at Bath in May in what turned out to be a strong race for the grade. The winner, Secret Potion, has won since off a 3lb higher mark while the second and third are now rated 12lb and 13lb higher respectively. Sovereign State is 4lb worse off with Glamorous Crescent tonight but a repeat of that effort would see him run very well in such a weak contest.

There is a doubt, however, over whether he can run to that level again due to what happened on his latest start at Chepstow. Wearing cheekpieces for the first time, he was extremely slowly away and showed no interest in running, eventually being beaten 56 lengths. It was reported by his trainer the following day that the horse had returned distressed so there may have been something that caused this and caused him to show no interest in racing.

The cheekpieces are now taken off and Sovereign State will like the cut in the ground tonight, something that isn't necessarily the case for a few of his rivals who are either unproven on such ground or have run badly on it in the past, including second favourite Excellent George.

The quality of jockeys can have a big impact on apprentice races and it's a positive for Sovereign State's chance that he has Grace McEntee in the saddle.

Therefore, despite the obvious concern about a repeat of his antics from Chepstow, I think the market has underestimated Sovereign State's chance and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.

Drop back to five furlongs may bring improvement

Windsor 18:35: Hope Springs 0.5pt e/w 80/1

It's no surprise that Oriental Spirit has been strong in the market this morning given the level he ran to at Salisbury last time and that he's likely to be more at home with this distance/ground combination than Shrara and Strike Me A Pose. With the value taken out of his price, I'm left with another selection in this race who I think could run better than her huge price suggests.

Hope Springs was beaten 15½ lengths on debut at Lingfield in June last year but she showed more ability than that results suggests. She showed good early speed and raced keenly under some restraint in second turning the first bend. She raced a bit awkwardly on the bend and shifted out which left her three wide running down the side of the course. She was nudged along in a share of third two furlongs out before appearing to hang under pressure and finding nothing, fading quickly in the last furlong.

All eight horses who finished ahead of Hope Springs and now rated 73 or higher and all bar one of them is no longer a maiden so she was in good company for her debut.

The long absence since suggests that she's had a problem and there's a concern that she may repeat the very weak finishing from her debut but the drop back to five furlongs should suit and I think she showed enough ability on debut to suggest she can run better than her huge price suggests. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.

Likely well-run race to bring a revival

Ripon 19:55: Lost My Sock 1pt win 6/1

There could be plenty of competition for the lead in this five-furlong handicap and that would favour Lost My Sock whose form has taken a slight dip of late.

He ran well when chasing home Dream Composer at Carlisle off a 2lb lower mark in May and followed that up with victory at Chester when closing late off a contested pace.

He's not managed to run up to that level since but there have been excuses for those performances.

On his next start at Newcastle he raced without cover and was too keen, being beaten 1¼ lengths into third.

He was awkwardly away at Haydock next time out and could never get competitive and that slow starting was much worse next time at York when he lost all chance at the start.

It was more encouraging on that front that he started much smoother at Thirsk on his latest start but he then faced the issue of being held up in a race that was quite steadily run and significantly favoured those who raced prominently (the first three finishers were the first three throughout). It further hindered Lost My Sock's chance that he didn't get a clear run about 1½ furlongs out and he could only plug on to finish seventh.

Tonight's race is likely to be far stronger run as all four of his rivals can lead or race very prominently and that may set the race up for him to come with another strong run to lead late on.

There is the obvious concern that he could return to his awkward starting antics but as long as he gets away ok then he should run well and any 5/1 or bigger appeals.