Rhys Williams' Monday Racing Tips: Security to improve significantly on second start

Possible she could improve plenty on second start

Brighton 13:45: Sense Of Security 1pt win 12/1

Summer's Day and Tadita Twitch dominate the market for the opening fillies' maiden at Brighton. They've both run to a very similar level but while doing that, neither of them has looked completely straightforward in the closing stages and one of their rivals might be able to take advantage of that after doing everything wrong on her debut.

Sense Of Security was very slowly away on debut at Kempton before racing extremely keenly under restraint at the back of the field in a steadily-run race. She was still being restrained in last turning into the home straight and was still in last with just over a furlong to go before making some late headway under gentle encouragement.

She clearly needs to improve plenty on the bare form of that performance to challenge the front pair but considering the very slow start and her keenness while being poorly positioned given the pace, I think there's a chance that she could take a big step forward today with the drop back in trip likely to suit.

It may turn out that she races far too keenly again or that she just isn't as good as the front pair but I think the market has underestimated her chance and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Promising debut and excuse for poor run last time

Brighton 16:15: Giveit Some Orange 1pt win w/o the favourite 7/2

Dusky Lord made a promising start to his career at Kempton last year and while he comes here off a long break, I think he's more reliable than the next two in the market.

Imperial Force doesn't look straightforward and it's tricky to know exactly what his ideal trip is while Tawaazon has been slowly away on both starts and not finished either race off too strongly.

Given that, I think the most appealing option in this race is to bet in the without the favourite market and it's the fourth and fifth in the straight market who appeal.

Giveit Some Orange made a belated start to his career at this track last month but it was an encouraging debut and one that suggested he can be competitive today. He was a bit slowly away and showed some greenness early on and he was last with three furlongs to go.

Angled to the outside of the field, he was shaken along and made a sudden move with two furlongs to go to challenge the leader. While that rival shrugged off the challenge, Giveit Some Orange kept responding to pressure and pulled 5½ lengths clear of the rest.

He's since finished well beaten at Chelmsford but he was struck into and finished lame so that's an obvious reason why he performed so far below expectations.

He's shown that he can run well at this track and the drop back in trip looks likely to suit and a repeat of his debut form would give him a better chance than the market suggests. Any 11/4 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.

Drop back in trip likely to suit

Brighton 16:15: Blackthirtyone 1pt win w/o the favourite 22/1

Blackthirtyone was sent off at a huge price on debut at Chelmsford but outperformed market expectations when finishing fifth.

Drawn widest of all, he was bumped slightly when the horse drawn to his inside went right at the start. Blackthirtyone was pushed along to recover and take a handy position and he was able to get into a share of the lead. He raced awkwardly and hung right a bit on the bend and had to be given a reminder to keep his mind on the job. He turned into the home straight in a share of second and was still in with a chance of being placed a furlong out before tiring and racing a bit greenly late on.

I think that race was a bit stronger than the one Blackthirtyone contests today with the first three home now being rated 76+ and he ran well for a long way, particularly considering his wide draw and awkwardness on the bend.

That awkwardness is a bit worrying now that he's running on a track with such a severe camber and it may be that a flat, straight track will see him at his best but he showed enough ability on debut to suggest the market is underestimating him today. Any 12/1 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.

Good opportunity on first start for new yard

Ripon 17:25: Liberation Point 1pt win 2/1

Angel Amadea will be a tough rival to beat if building on the promise of her debut at Newmarket but she's since run significantly below that level at Lingfield and has to bounce back today. As a result of that question she has to answer, I think there's too much in the market between her and the second favourite, Liberation Point.

He's had an interrupted career but showed a good level of ability on both start for Richard Fahey. On debut at Newcastle in December 2019, he was a bit slowly away and showed some greenness towards the back of the field is a very slowly run race.

Niggled along with just under three furlongs to go, he could never get a clear run on the near rail and wasn't given a remotely hard ride while running on into sixth. All five horses that finished ahead of him that day went on to be rated 84+.

Liberation Point was off the track for 296 days before making his second start on very testing ground at Pontefract. He tracked Hydros from an early stage and the pair had the race to themselves from halfway. He was a few lengths behind that rival entering the home straight and could never put in a challenge but kept running on well for driving to finish second, 9½ lengths clear of the third.

He was bought shortly after at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale by The Horse Watchers for 16,000gns and has now joined Mick Appleby. He's been reported to have had a few issues since, which explains the absence, and now returns off only a slightly longer break than the one he had between his first two starts.

If Liberation Point can run to the level he showed in his first two starts then he will put up a big challenge to Angel Amadea and I think there's currently too much between them in the market. Any 7/4 or bigger appeals.