Rhys Williams' Monday Racing Tips: Libbretta to spring a surprise

Back in more suitable company

Lingfield 13:55: Libbretta 1pt win 16/1

Two three-year-olds head the market for the opening handicap at Lingfield. Harston shaped fairly well in both starts this season but she has looked a bit wayward under pressure. Crestwood won on handicap debut last time at this track and a 3lb rise could be a bit lenient but he may not want the ground to dry out too much from its current description.

Both of these are capable of winning but the market hasn't missed that whereas I think the chance of the outsider of the field has been overlooked.

Libbretta was well held on her latest start but that was in a novice race and she shaped better than the result suggests. Having travelled well for a long way, she got no run with around two furlongs to go and lost all momentum. She was slightly hampered and had to switch again late on and could never get anywhere near the leaders as a result. The horse who finished just ahead of her ran fairly well off 64 last week while the horse who finished one place behind her had beaten Harston on her previous run.

Prior to that over the winter, Libbretta often ran well in handicaps on the all weather at Lingfield over 1m2f and 1m4f. She was beaten a short head in successive races over 1m4f, the second of those being behind French Minstrel who was completing the first of a hat trick of victories.

Libbretta ran poorly after that but she never seemed to be travelling with much zest and it may be that she needed a break which she then had prior to running at Kempton.

I have a slight concern about the ground if it stays good to soft as while I think she can be as good on turf as on the all weather, I'm not sure she wants any cut in the ground. However, with a dry day forecast it may be that the ground dries out to good by the start of the meeting.

I think her finishing position in her last two starts and the presence of some unexposed three-year-olds in the line-up has caused her to be overlooked in the market. Although she is a six-year-old, Libbretta is lightly raced for her age and I think there could be more to come from her so any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

Hopefully will be ridden more suitably back down in trip

Ayr 14:15: Classy Al 1pt win 33/1

Classy Al ran an eyecatching race on debut at Redcar when looking clueless for much of the race. He's not quite gone on from that as might have been expected but I think the tactics in a couple of races since haven't been remotely suitable for him.

He was held up over a mile on the second start of his career and could never get anywhere near the leaders and on his latest start on handicap debut over seven furlongs he was heavily restrained to race at the back of the field. In a slowly-run race that significantly favoured those racing handily, it was no surprise that he could never get competitive and finished last.

In between those races, he was ridden much handier in a novice race at Redcar and that appeared to suit him much better. Having broken better than many of his rivals, Harry Russell couldn't get any cover on him and he raced upsides in the lead for much of the race before fading very late on to finish fourth.

In today's race, there are quite a few typical front runners or very prominent racers and I think the most sensible option would be to try to get cover tracking the leaders early on rather than looking to heavily restrain him at the back of the field in an attempt to get him to settle. The hood going on for the first time should also give them more confidence that he can settle better in a prominent position.

There is the obvious concern that they might not do this and will repeat the tactics from last time despite being down in trip and he has looked quite awkward under pressure so it may be that his talent will never quite show in his results due to this.

However, given that the ability he's shown at Redcar on both starts over this trip suggests that he could be better than his rating of 62, I can't let him go unbacked at a big price and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.