Rhys Williams has analysed Monday's racing and has a big-priced selection at Warwick...
"This is his first start over fences so I can't be certain that he will take to fences but that his jumping education came in France is a positive in that regard and his trainer commented after winning at Leicester that he expected him to improve over fences."
Forecast rain a big positive
There's plenty of rain forecast for Warwick today and that could result in a plethora of non-runners and races suddenly having a far different look to them with a significant change in the going a likely outcome. I think the races have been priced as though the ground will remain good, in particular the two-mile novices' handicap chase.
The one horse in the race who will clearly be suited by the change in conditions is Fil d'Ariane, who is currently the second biggest price of the nine runners at 18/1. He came up against some strong opposition in maiden hurdles including Arriverderci and Full Back and performed well in those races on soft ground.
He won a handicap hurdle off 115 on his first start of this season at Leicester, making a late challenge and going on to win by 1½ lengths. He ran better than the beaten margin suggests next time over the same C&D when he was put into the race sooner and challenged the leading pair before weakening out of contention late on.
He ran fairly well again at Warwick over hurdles two starts ago when finishing sixth and he again shaped better than the result suggests on his latest start at Sandown. Stepped up to 2m4f, he travelled well for a long way and was still going well entering the home straight but quickly dropped away when pushed along before 2 out.
His weak finishing tendencies are a concern and he might need a wind op but he may end up in the ideal scenario in this race of being one of very few who is capable of running well in the ground, presuming that the forecast rain does arrive and turns the watered ground into a soft ground mess.
This is his first start over fences so I can't be certain that he will take to fences but that his jumping education came in France is a positive in that regard and his trainer commented after winning at Leicester that he expected him to improve over fences.
Even if the forecast rain doesn't arrive, he still looks overpriced at 18/1 in a fairly weak race but if the expected rain does end up turning the ground soft, he has a much better chance this his price suggests.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021