Rhys Williams has no selections for today but has analysed what looks a fiendish puzzle in the opening race at Wincanton.
"This looks an ultra-tricky race for punters to solve to start the day at Wincanton with so many doubts over the market leaders but that does make it an interesting race to watch unfold."
Plenty of questions to answer
One of the keys of profitable betting is knowing when not to bet and, for me, nothing appeals today on a tricky looking set of cards. The opening race at Wincanton presents a particularly tough punting puzzle.
Confirmation Bias heads the market but he comes into this on the back of an awful run at Newbury. He was far too keen that day over 2m4½f and quickly dropped away early in the home straight. The drop back to 1m7f and the good ground should be more suitable but he's generally been inconsistent and it's difficult to be sure what to expect from him, with cheekpieces now going on for the first time too.
Hope You Do was a winner on debut in an AQPS flat race at Angers. He was privately bought afterwards by JP McManus and sent to Philip Hobbs. He was sent off evens favourite for his hurdling debut at Warwick but severely disappointed. In a steadily run race, he was keen early on but then didn't seem to be travelling great running down the hill on the far side of the track. He managed to get into contention turning the final bend but found little under driving and hung left in the home straight, finishing fifth. It's now difficult to know if the apparent greenness shown on debut at Angers was that or if it was actually awkwardness. He's another who will be suited by the quicker ground today.
Gold Link is another French AQPS import, having finished second on both starts for Adrien Lacombe. His two runs since joining Emma Lavelle have been less promising. He ran quite well on his first start over hurdles at Newton Abbot, albeit eventually beaten 44 lengths by Metier, but last time at Chepstow wasn't as encouraging and he was reported to have made a noise. He's since had a wind op so that could bring about some improvement, as could the quicker ground. Although officially heavy on his second start in France, it wasn't that soft and I think he may appreciate this better ground.
Kalyptra showed ability on debut in an Irish point and ran quite well on hurdling debut for Nick Mitchell at Taunton. He raced quite keenly in front that day and held that position until early in the home straight. He was only a couple of lengths down at 2 out but got in close and he faded tamely from that point. This sharper test may see him in a better light and he might take advantage if others have off days.
Kost A Coat was off the track for 714 days prior to making his hurdling debut at Sandown last time. In ground that was more testing than the official good to soft, he raced at the back of the small field until making ground on the outside on the final bend. He jumped 2 out in a share of third and just about held second at the last but he landed awkwardly and had nothing left on the run in, coming home 27 lengths behind the winner in fifth. The way he travelled that day suggests that he still retains the ability he showed in bumpers but he has to show that he can back it up on the second start after a long break.
This looks an ultra-tricky race for punters to solve to start the day at Wincanton with so many doubts over the market leaders but that does make it an interesting race to watch unfold.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021