Rhys Williams has analysed the Good Friday racing and has one selection at Newcastle...
"Although he finished eleventh, twelfth and eighth in his three runs last season, I thought he showed a bit of promise and his trainer has done well in the past with finding the key to similar types."
Building degrees of promise
With the kickback at Chelmsford currently being horrendous and Lingfield's premier meeting looking to have been priced up about right, my attentions have turned to Newcastle. While most of the focus at this meeting will be on the listed and 2yo races, there's a horse with seemingly unappealing form figures who I think could spring a surprise later on the card.
Tamkeen was bought by Ruth Carr for £8,000 in January 2019 having run four times for Owen Burrows. He showed very little on his first start for Carr after 487 days off and had another 292-day break before his first run of 2020 at Beverley. He showed plenty of speed over the 1m½f trip to lead before dropping away quickly from two furlongs out.
Next time at Thirsk, he broke quite well but was heavily restrained from the wide draw to race at the back of the field. He raced quite keenly through the first couple of furlongs and was still in last turning into the straight. Generally only ridden hands and heels, he plugged on to finish 5¾ lengths behind the winner.
Dropped another 6lb for that to 59, he returned to Beverley to run over 7½f on his most recent start. Once again, he was drawn wide and restrained after the start to get across to the inside rail in second last. Again, he raced keenly under restraint and was still in second last with three furlongs to go. Pushed along two furlongs out, he stayed on a little to finish 4¼ lengths behind the winner.
Tamkeen has now dropped to 55 and makes his return to action after 252 days off. Although he finished eleventh, twelfth and eighth in his three runs last season, I thought he showed a bit of promise and his trainer has done well in the past with finding the key to similar types.
Of course there is the possibility that he's had plenty of problems and will continue his drop in the ratings and he looks the second string on jockey bookings but in a weak race I think he's worthy of a small bet at 16/1 or bigger.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021