Rhys Williams' Friday Racing Tips: Rovaniemi to pounce late

Return to more patient tactics would suit

York 15:35: Arecibo 1pt e/w 28/1

There's plenty of early speed in the Nunthorpe with the likes of Winter Power and Que Amoro having the potential to repeat their King's Stand burn-up and Golden Pal being added into the mix along with a few others.

Such a pace could set the race up for a closer and while Suesa and Dragon Symbol are the most likely beneficiaries of that, it's a horse who was suited by the aforementioned burn-up in the King's Stand who appeals at the prices given the enhanced place terms.

Arecibo has been transformed this season from a horse whose consistently eyecatching without winning efforts regularly drew 'next time Arecibo backers' quips into a top class sprinter and the likely pace scenario today will give him a chance to show his best having not been ideally suited by the circumstances of his last two runs.

The potential lack of a strong pace at Sandown two starts ago resulted in him being ridden much handier than was the case in the King's Stand and he went about a length clear with half a furlong to go only to be caught in the final few yards.

Last time out at Goodwood, he raced in the chasing line behind the two front runners and cruised into a share of the lead with 1½ furlongs to go but had no response when Suesa came past and faded into fourth.

The likely pace scenario today can allow Jamie Spencer to give Arecibo a ride more similar to the one he gave him at Ascot and whereas he was tracked by Suesa at Goodwood, those roles may be reversed today with that filly drawn next to him.

It is a slight concern that the pace of Golden Pal and Winter Power are drawn away from Arecibo in stalls one and six while he's nearest the stands' side rail in fifteen but dropping Arecibo out again early could allow Spencer to switch him nearer to the middle of the track if needed.

However, despite this concern, he appeals each way given his run style can see him pick up the pieces late on while others have made their challenges sooner and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.

Hindered by steadily run races of late

Kempton 16:20: Rovaniemi 1pt e/w 11/1

A strong pace is also likely to be a feature of this six-furlong handicap with Canagat, Evasive Power, Bowman and Hazel all potentially challenging for the front running role early on.

Such a pace could set the race up for the often smooth-travelling Rovaniemi who hasn't been helped by a steady pace in his last three starts.

He finished last of five three starts ago behind yesterday's York winner Cruyff Turn when that rival was able to control the pace with no pressure. Rovaniemi was asked for his challenge with just over a furlong to go but couldn't ever challenge the winner while only being beaten 1¾ lengths into last.

Two starts ago at Newmarket, he was a bit awkwardly away and raced at the back of the field before making headway with around three furlongs to go and was travelling best two furlongs out before dropping away very quickly in the final furlong.

On his most recent start at Doncaster, he was again held up in last and was the only one still on the bridle with two furlongs to go. He was initially blocked for a run and had to be switched but had nothing left in the final half furlong and only beat one home.

The combination of a drop back to six furlongs and a likely strong pace looks ideal for him and he has a good chance of bouncing back to form.

There is a concern that he's finished so weakly in his last two starts that he has a problem and he has found
little under pressure in the past.

However, he might simply be able to travel all over his rivals if the expected pace ensues and that may mean he doesn't need to find much late on to win. Any 8/1 or bigger appeals.

Potential opportunity to make all

Newcastle 19:37: Late Arrival 1pt win 11/1

This seven-furlong handicap is at the opposite end of the pace spectrum to those two races and that could play in the favour of Late Arrival who looks the potential lone front runner.

His form has dipped since joining the Easterby's from the Crisford's but he's shown up well for a long way on a couple of occasions over seven furlongs this season and ran well over a mile at Carlisle last time.

He raced handily for a long way over seven furlongs at York five starts ago and was still in contention a furlong out before dropping away and then ran fairly well at Chester off 9lb higher mark than he races off today considering that he was trapped out wide throughout.

On his latest start at Carlisle, Late Arrival quickly took the lead and set a fairly good pace, with the front three going a few lengths clear of the rest at halfway. He was still in front a furlong out but was headed half a furlong out and was beaten two lengths into fourth.

The drop back to seven furlongs should suit and he might face no pressure for the lead which could allow him to build on the promise of the Carlisle run.

He has been inconsistent since joining this yard so he isn't certain to repeat or build on it but these circumstances give him a good chance to do so. Any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Ended up very poorly positioned in last two starts

Newcastle 19:37: Trevie Fountain 0.5pt win 20/1

Trevie Fountain has shown his best form when tracking the leader and he could end up in that position again this evening which would give him a chance to bounce back after being awfully positioned and running terribly as a result in his last two starts.

At Beverley two starts ago, he was squeezed up at the start and ended up being towards the back of the field in a slowly run race and unsurprisingly he was unable to get involved from that position.

On his latest start at Wolverhampton, he was drawn widest and ended up being very wide on the first bend. He was trapped widest going down the back straight and ended up in a ridiculously wide position on the final bend before finishing well beaten.

There is a concern that he's raced keenly in the past so he might ideally want to track a strong pace but he should at least be able to get into a more suitable early position than has been the case of his last two starts. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.