Rhys Williams' Friday Racing Tips: Global to cause a shock

Better than the result in both runs

Curragh 18:35: Global Export 1pt e/w 33/1

Global Export has been beaten over ten lengths in two starts in maidens but he shaped better than the result on both starts and I think he could cause a shock this evening.

He was slowly away on debut over 1m2f at Leopardstown and raced at the back of the field for much of the race. He was briefly caught in a pocket on the inside at the end of the back straight before he started to make headway and was pushed along on the bend. He had moved into midfield by the start of the home straight but the effort of making such a move took its toll late on and he couldn't close any further, finishing 10½ lengths behind Southern Lights.

He was stepped to 1m4f for his second start at the same track and got unlucky with the draw, being drawn widest of all eighteen runners. He was quicker away from the stalls this time but was caught wide and raced a bit keenly early on. He raced on the outside in midfield and was nudged along to make headway turning out of the back straight.

He closed into a smooth-travelling fourth before looking to hang slightly on the final bend and he was pushed along entering the home straight. He couldn't go with the leading trio and faded inside the final furlong to be beaten 11½ lengths in eighth.

The winner of that race was The Mediterranean who is now rated 104 and finished fourth in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. The second was Ruling who is now rated 103, the third was King Of The Castle who is now rated 94, while the two horses that finished either side of Global Export in seventh and ninth have since finished first and second in a maiden at the Curragh.

It was encouraging for his chance today that Global Export was able to travel as well as he did for as long as he did in a race of such quality and that was after being wide and keen in the early stages too.

The drop back to 1m2f should suit and given that he looked to hang right a bit on the final bend, the switch to a right-handed track should help his cause too.

It may turn out that Global Export just doesn't find as much under pressure as seems likely from the way he travels as he's not finished off either race too strongly but there were mitigating circumstances for that.

I think the combination of his finishing positions, this being his third run so punters might automatically have future handicaps in mind and that he comes from a small yard has caused his chance to be completely overlooked in this race despite the obvious promise of the last run.

This is a fairly strong maiden with Safecracker setting the standard with a rating of 86 but I think Global Export is capable of at least being competitive and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.