Rhys Williams has analysed Friday's racing and has five selections.
"I think the return to this C&D will suit and this better ground will help his chance too. Although he's run well on softer ground, he clearly appreciated the better ground in both runs last November."
Promise under unfavourable circumstances last time
Since finishing second at Wetherby on Boxing Day in 2019, Raddle And Hum had generally disappointed until coming back to life last time on her first run after a wind op.
Held up towards the back of the field, she jumped the first two quite big and a little out to the right. She was shuffled to the back of the pack with two circuits to go and then ended up wide with a circuit to run. She made some headway going down the back straight before being outpaced after 3 out. She ran on well late but could never get competitive and finished third.
Wide and held up is position Z at Fakenham so it was a good effort from Raddle And Hum to only be beaten 6¼ lengths in the circumstances. The winner was following up a previous win over C&D while the runner up has won since to give some solidity to the form.
A potential concern today is the lack of front runners or even prominent racers in the field and that holding up Raddle And Hum in a slowly run race may not be a wise idea. However, Andapa did go off quickly last time and Abington Park and Inexorable have raced handily in recent runs so there's hope of a decent pace and, if it looks like that won't be the case, hopefully Becky Smith will be alive to that and ride accordingly.
The switch to a right-handed track should suit and I think Raddle And Hum could be a bigger danger to the favourite than the market suggests. Any 4/1 or bigger appeals.
First sign of life under rules last time
Getaway Bay is very lightly-raced for a nine-year-old having had 824 days off following his first start for this yard back in October 2017. He showed nothing in novice hurdles after that and the handicapper took a complete guess with a rating of 77.
On his handicap debut at Catterick, he showed a bit of promise when finishing fourth. Having been held up on the first circuit, he started to make significant headway after the first hurdle in the back straight and was in a share of fourth two hurdles later. He was slightly awkward at that hurdle and was briefly shaken along after. He lost a bit of ground on the leading quartet turning the final bend before being pushed along turning into the home straight where his jockey decided to stay on the far side. Getaway Bay moved into third at 2 out and although he could never get close to the leading pair, kept plugging away to finish fourth.
This was more encouraging from Getaway Bay and his performance can be upgraded as he raced on the worst part of the track in the home straight and was unfavourably positioned having been held up. I also think the ground may have been softer than ideal for him, with it being badly cut up by that stage of the day.
Given his physique, I think both Catterick and today's track may not be ideal for him and that he will improve once going over fences. There's also the same concern as with Raddle And Hum that being held up again in a potentially slowly-run race would harm his chance but he has raced handily in the past so hopefully they will return to those tactics today.
Despite being the oldest in the field I think Getaway Bay has more potential for improvement than most of his rivals and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.
Good form over this C&D
Pakie's Dream's latest efforts over fences may not make him an appealing betting prospect to many in this race but that's fine with me as I think it's those form figures of F7F that have left him overpriced.
He ran well in defeat with a visor on for the first time over this C&D in early November last year. He was never too far behind the leaders on the inside from the off and turned out of the back straight for the final time in third. He was nudged along after 3 out to try to close on the leader but went through 2 out which didn't help his cause. He rallied well under pressure after but could only get to within 1½ lengths at the line. The winner of that race won easily off a 6lb higher mark next time.
Pakie's Dream was sent back over hurdles next time and blinkers went on and he won easily at Musselburgh.
Since then, things haven't quite gone right for him. He fell at the first at Market Rasen in December and then disappointed at Musselburgh when finishing seventh over 3m.
He did, however, show promising signs on his return at Perth last month until falling at 4 out. He had travelled and jumped well in front up to that point but put in an extra stride, caught the top and came down.
I think the return to this C&D will suit and this better ground will help his chance too. Although he's run well on softer ground, he clearly appreciated the better ground in both runs last November.
It's never ideal coming into a race on the back of a fall so that's a slight concern but I think Pakie's Dream can bounce back today and any 5/1 or bigger appeals.
Slipped to an attractive mark
Chocquinto caused a huge shock when winning at 150/1 at the Curragh last summer. Although she's failed to add to that since, she's still shown ability and has done so on her last two starts.
At Tipperary two starts ago over five furlongs, she was very slowly away and detached from the field early on. She recovered to latch on to the back of the near side group at halfway. She made headway about 1½ furlongs out and ran on well to finish fifth, with the front four having raced in the middle group early on. Given her poor start and unfavourable track position, this was a promising run.
She was well beaten at Sligo over six furlongs last time but showed more than her margin beaten suggests. She wasn't so slowly away and raced keenly towards the back of the field out quite wide. She made headway to be in a share of third shortly before turning into the home straight but didn't make any more headway and dropped away quick from a furlong out.
Chocquinto has been dropped 3lb for that to 62, a mark that her run at Tipperary suggests she can be competitive off.
Clearly there's the concern that she could repeat her very slow starting antics but at least she wasn't so bad last time and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Return to suitable trip and ground
Twenty Minutes has run over a wide variety of distances in his career but I think he's best over sprint trips so this should be more suitable than the distances he's been running over at Dundalk on his four most recent starts.
Three of those came over a mile and the other over seven furlongs. He ran quite well on the first of them but has been well held in all three since and his mark has dropped in the process.
That means that he's now racing off an 11lb lower mark than when finishing a close fourth over 5½ furlongs at Navan last September. He filled the same position over five furlongs at the Curragh off a stone high mark in July, despite not getting a completely clear run.
There is the chance that he's just on the decline and won't bounce back but I think this is far more his game than running over a mile and he's shown that he can run well over this C&D having finished second in a handicap in June 2019. Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
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