Rhys Williams' Friday Racing Tips: Alex has the chance to make all

Built on debut while still showing some greenness

Thirsk 13:00: Agilulf 1pt e/w 10/1

Agilulf was very green on debut at Newcastle when finishing behind one of today's rivals, Outsmart, so it was no surprise that he improved significantly on that when finishing fourth at Nottingham on his second start.

He was restrained a bit early on to race on the outside in midfield early on and he had to be niggled along slightly on the bend to maintain focus. Gently shaken along with just under half a mile to go, he made some headway to briefly track the leaders before being outpaced with two furlongs to go. However, he closed strongly late on while edging left to finish fourth, beaten 3¾ lengths.

The steady tempo of that race was against Agilulf, who is likely to want middle distances next season, so he did well to finish so close despite still being green and ran to about 70.

He will need to improve again on that to win this race and a repeat of the tactics used at Nottingham wouldn't be helpful but he got away from the stalls well enough and was even a bit keen early on so there's no reason why they shouldn't be looking to ride him handier today, particularly from a wide draw.

Given the potential for improvement I think the market has underestimated his chance and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.

Absolutely clueless on debut

Thirsk 13:00: Fiftyshadesaredev 0.5pt win 50/1

Few horses will be as green as Fiftyshadesaredev was on debut at this track over a furlong shorter earlier this month and while he may be more of a three-year-old handicap prospect, I can't let him go unbacked at a huge price.

Slowly into stride, he was immediately driven along and became detached from the field. He briefly travelled a bit sweeter from halfway around the bend but was soon shaken along again early in the home straight. While he could never get competitive, he made some headway late on when his rider was only nudged him out and he finished ninth.

It may be that he's still very green today or just slow and not much good but given how clueless Fiftyshadesaredev was in that race, I think he did well to beat anything home and there's the potential for him to take a big step forward today if mentally sharper for the experience. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.

C&D winner has benefit of good amateur in the saddle

Thirsk 16:20: Alex Gracie 1pt e/w 11/1

The closing race on the card at Thirsk is for amateur riders who hadn't ridden more than three winners at the start of the season. As a result, there's a wide range of ability among the jockeys from those that gained plenty of experience in pony racing and already look accomplished amateurs to those for whom this is a big steep learning curve.

Among the best jockeys in this race is Eireann Cagney who already has plenty of experience under rules having ridden in 66 races on the flat and gained four wins and I think his quality in the saddle gives Alex Gracie a better chance the market suggests in this race.

Alex Gracie ran well on her first start of the turf season off a 2lb higher mark at Nottingham when chasing home Case Key while finishing two lengths ahead of Excessable who she meets today on 2lb better terms.

She was disappointing next time at Catterick but she was tightened for room early on in that race which meant she couldn't get into a very handy position and hung right on the bend so there were excuses for that.

On her latest start back on the straight track at Nottingham, she was shaken along early to get to the front and set a good pace before fading out of contention in the final furlong.

The ground may have been slightly softer than ideal for Alex Gracie that day and the pace she set was a bit stronger than ideal. As long as the minor chance of rain this morning doesn't occur then I expect the ground will dry out by the last race to be ideal for her and it may be easier for Eireann Cagney to get her to the front or a very prominent position early on in this race as the potential other pace angles are ridden by far less experienced jockeys.

It may turn out that Lord P is still too well handicapped to be beaten having won easily at Carlisle but I think Alex Gracie is a better danger to him than the market suggests and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.