Rhys Williams' Friday Racing Tips: Aintree bumper market looks all wrong

Much calmer waters in a handicap

Aintree 17:50: Militarian 1.5pt win 9/1

The placement of Militarian at the end of last season can only be described as baffling. Rather than running him in a handicap off 133, they decided to go for the Betway Bowl at Aintree and the Oaksey Chase at Sandown and he showed up surprisingly well in both.

In the Betway Bowl, he was still in touch leaving the back straight in fifth but after coming under strong pressure turning into the home straight, he had little left to offer and was pulled up before 2 out. Considering he was the lowest rated in the field by 24lb, he stayed in touch for much longer than expected.

After that it seemed the obvious option was to try to find a suitable handicap next time but once again they sent him into graded company in the Oaksey Chase. Having initially been held up, he had moved into a close second with a circuit to go and he went to toe-to-toe with Frodon down the whole of the back straight. He came under strong pressure after jumping the pond fence but was still in a share of third when crashing through 2 out and almost unseating rider. He continued to plug on gamely after that but ended up being beaten 30 lengths.

Once again, he ran better for a long way than expected given the gulf in ratings and Militarian now drops back into handicap company with his rating unchanged on 133. I'm hoping they ride him prominently, particularly since he's down in trip, as I think that's when he's at his best and when his jumping is at its best.

It was no surprise that the overnight punters took care of the opening prices but he's still quite a bit bigger than I made him and any 6/1 or bigger appeals.

Step up in trip to suit

Aintree 19:35: My Bobby Dazzler 1.5pt win 9/4

The performance of Kimmins in a jumpers bumper at Kempton gained much attention at the time and she is now favourite for her hurdling debut. However, while this will be a more suitable test for her and she clearly has ability, I'm not convinced about the strength of that form and a horse with hurdling experience looks a more appealing option.

After seeing that they were running My Bobby Dazzler over 2m for his rules debut at Ludlow, my expectation was that I would be backing him on handicap debut when they stepped him up in trip. However, for some reason the handicapper has decided that, despite being eligible for a mark, My Bobby Dazzler would not be given one and connections have now stepped him up in trip in a maiden hurdle.

He looked a strong stayer in points when chasing home the now 126-rated Fedelta at Larkhill and then coming with a strong late run to catch Famous Clermont on his last start in that sphere at the same track.

Therefore, it was understandable that 2m at Ludlow was far too sharp for My Bobby Dazzler on his first start under rules and he finished 22l behind Getaway Luv.

I was anticipating similar at Huntingdon next time but he ran surprisingly well, helped to some extent by the second and third getting into a battle a long way out. He raced in midfield in the chasing group for much of the race and was only in a share of fifth jumping 3 out. He was only gently nudged along on the final bend and he gradually started to close early in the straight. He wasn't given a particularly hard time by his jockey in the closing stages but finished off the race very strongly to finish fourth.

The winner of that race is only rated 120 and My Bobby Dazzler will have to improve on that form to win tonight but the step up in trip looks likely to bring that required improvement. He also has the edge of having hurdling experience unlike Kimmins and that could prove vital late on.

It may be that she has too much class for him but I'm expecting My Bobby Dazzler to be more competitive tonight and he's more of a danger than the market suggests.

Market doesn't reflect the form

Aintree 20:35: Latitude 3pt win 6/1

The market for the point to point bumper that closes the card at Aintree looks completely wrong to me and I'm taking a strong view to try to take advantage of that.

Crews Pitch was initially put in as favourite in the overnight market. He finished second in a point to point bumper at Exeter last time but I think that was a weak race and he looks vulnerable.

There's also been some market support for If I Say, who won at Chaddesley Corbett on her debut. She was more superior to her rivals than the margin suggests given her position for much of the race and that she hung left in the straight but there has to be significant doubt over the strength of that race. Back in a close fourth was Fountains Chief who finished further behind Crews Pitch at Exeter than he did If I Say.

It may turn out that one of these horses significantly improves tonight, and if that happens then I will be much poorer for it, but the horse with by far the best point to point bumper form of these is Latitude and he's the first selection.

He obliterated the field on debut in a point to point bumper at Maisemore Park. Always in a prominent position, he started to go clear with Willewonga down the back straight and began to get the better of that rival turning the final bend while still travelling smoothly. Shaken up on turning in, he gradually went clear of that rival without being given a hard ride and beat him by 12 lengths. There was another 20 lengths back to Rose Above It, who beat Crews Pitch in the Exeter point to point bumper.

Latitude has since been beaten in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett. He was ridden more patiently on that occasion before making headway to go second towards the end of the back straight. He was still only a couple of lengths behind at 3 out but gradually faded from that point and ended up finishing a tired third.

Although the ground at both meetings was officially soft, there's a big difference between Maisemore soft and Chaddesley soft. In the latter case, there were few finishers throughout the card and some of those finishers were only just moving in a forward direction at the end. His action suggests he doesn't want much cut in the ground so I expect the testing conditions that day played a part in his performance. He was also up against some good opposition. Harper's Brook has since run well in defeat in a Wetherby bumper while One Fer Mamma finished second in an Exeter bumper on his next start.

The positive of that Chaddesley defeat from a betting point of view is that it's meant he's been severely underestimated by the market for tonight's race. He's from a top yard and has a very good jockey in the saddle and I would be disappointed if he's not involved in the finish.

Bumper a more suitable test

Aintree 20:35: Latenightfumble 3pt win 13/2

With my significant doubts over the strength of the bumper form for half the field, my other two selections are horses that have not competed in them. The first of those is Latenightfumble, who I'm expecting to be far more suited to this test than the 3m points she's often run in.

She fell on her debut at Kimble in April 2019, having already made some mistakes on the final circuit and once again she only managed one run in a season in the shortened 2019/20 season when finishing second to Gold Clermont at Brocklesby Park.

She stepped up on that when hacking up at Dingley on her first start of this season. Dropped back to 2m4f, she was held up before travelling smoothly into contention going down the back on the final circuit. She jumped to the front at 2 out and gradually went further and further clear of her rivals from that point to win by 30 lengths. The runner up won a maiden next time and the performance on the clock didn't compare too badly with the Mixed Open earlier on the card.

Latenightfumble has since been beaten in a Restricted but she ran much better than her finishing position suggests. Back up to 3m, she eased her way into contention and then jumped into a clear advantage going down the back. However, after 2 out she started to weaken and faded very quickly in the straight to be a well-beaten third.

Despite her defeat it was still a good run. The winner had beaten Quinta Do Mar and finished a close third behind Getting Closer last season, while the runner up was an easy winner over a subsequent maiden winner on his previous start.

The greater test of speed tonight will be far more suitable for Latenightfumble based on what she's shown in points and I expect her to improve for it, so it would be disappointing if she doesn't run well.

Promising debut in strong maiden

Aintree 20:35: Foxinthebox 2.5pt win 9/4

While the market didn't necessarily miss Foxinthebox last night, it was surprising that he didn't open as favourite given his trainer and that's probably the position he should hold in the market.

He ran well on debut at Barbury Castle when trained by Fran Nimmo. His jumping lacked fluency and he was pushed along turning down the back straight as the pace started to significantly lift in front. He got in close to the first and third down the back and was then left in second at 3 out when Brother Byrne fell. He had a lot of ground to make up on Salt Of The Earth and took a while to realise what was required of him but he gradually got the message and stayed on well late on to only be beaten 2½ lengths.

This race had a strong look to it at the time and subsequent performances have backed that up. Twig, who was a well-beaten third, has since won a maiden. Brother Byrne, who fell at 3 out, would have easily won a maiden since but for falling at 2 out. And Transition Period, who would have finished third but falling at the last, has since finished a close second in a maiden.

The lack of obstacles tonight will be a positive for Foxinthebox given the ground and momentum he lost with his jumping and I expect him to be mentally sharper for that experience too. There is a slight concern that he will want a stiffer test of stamina as he finished off that race strongly but he looks to have a very good chance and has to be part of a strong betting approach to this race.