Alan Dudman has a lay in the Place market for Southwell on Thursday, whilst a horse that could outstay his rivals gets the nod at Lingfield...
"It was testing that day too and he really flashed home in the style of an unexposed stayer."
Dingle and Avoir to go through the mud again at Lingfield
The 14:03 chase looks winnable and whilst I respect the claims of the veteran Away For Slates, the unexposed Avoir De Soins gets the call to build on his win last time out.
That victory came at the track over 2m4f and he drops down to the minimum for Thursday, but with heavy ground, and it tends to be bottomless at Lingfield, his extra stamina can come into play so the reduced yardage isn't a huge negative for me.
The latest win came from 91 and whilst he got going strongly at the end, I thought today's jockey Rex Dingle was fairly confident with the way he latched onto the field just before the home turn. It was testing that day too and he really flashed home in the style of an unexposed stayer.
His jumping held up which was a positive, as he'd previously fallen at the first.
Oppose Grand Pianola over new distance
Grand Pianola has had four chances to get his head in front at Southwell and now looks ripe for taking on in the Place market if we can get around 1.68/13.
With just seven runners, we need him out of the first two and I am not convinced about his attitude in a finish. Last time he was well beaten in third behind Grimsthorpe Castle, and there wasn't much of a response when headed. In my opinion, that was probably his tamest effort on the Fibresand to date.
He's actually gone up 2lb for that but he's not progressing, and that makes him a negative for this race - especially over a new distance of 1m6f against three track and trip winners.
One of those is Sophar Sogood, who has form in 0-75 grade. He's 2-2 at the track and by young sire French Navy, who could turn out to be an interesting stallion for the Fibresand as he has thrown up two individual winners already from a small sample.
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Alan Dudman's P & L
2020 Overall: -24.69
*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise
2016-2019 P&L: +70.03
2020 Festival Bets Of Day (Ascot & Cheltenham): +17.60 (1pt stake)
2020 Irish Racing Tips: +34.20 (1pt stake)