Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams likes a novice hurdler w/o the favourite at Newbury

Promise on both starts over hurdles

Newbury 12:55: Kepy Blanc 1pt win w/o the favourite 4/1

Broomfield Burg is a very short-priced favourite in the novices' hurdle at Newbury and justifiably so given the impression he's created since the hood has gone on in his last two starts. Rather than take him on, I think there's an attractive option in the without the favourite market in this race.

Silent Revolution is favourite in that market and he showed a fairly good level of ability in bumpers last season. However, he raced quite keenly on a couple of occasions while also looking to lack a turn of foot and I wonder if he's starting over two miles over hurdles because of that keenness rather than him necessarily having the speed to be at his best over this trip.

Boombawn ran a promising race on debut in a bumper at Worcester when trained by Tom Weston and he now makes his first start for Dan Skelton. I think this will be a suitable trip for him but I'm not convinced about the quality of that race at Worcester.

The third favourite in this market is Kepy Blanc and I think his chance is being underestimated by the market. He started his career in France and caught the eye on debut at Fontainebleau. Held up in the first half of the race, he made some headway going across the middle of the course to 5 out and was closing in sixth jumping 3 out. He was very gently nudged along between the last two hurdles and jumped the last in fifth before coming under a strong ride on the run in and he ran on to finish second.

While the bare form of that race is only of a fair standard, he looked capable of being better than that suggests and was bought for €75,000 soon after.

He has since joined Philip Hobbs and made his first start for Hobbs at Warwick at the start of this season after a 571-day break. He set off in last and raced a bit keenly under restraint before gaining three places jumping the first hurdle. He made some headway to be in touch with the leading quartet on the very long run to 4 out and he was still travelling well in sixth at 3 out. He moved into fourth soon after 2 out but continued to not be asked for any effort. He was very gently nudged along to go into third bypassing the usual 2 out and held that position at the finish.

This was a ride more in keeping with rides frequently seen in France when a horse in coming back from a long break. The way Kepy Blanc travelled through the race was encouraging and he looked capable of achieving far more when not held up to that extent early on and when given a more vigorous ride in the closing stages of a race.

There is a concern that he was a bit keen that day and this race may not be too strongly run and this is David Maxwell's first ride since May so there might be some ring rustiness on that front. However, I think there shouldn't be so much of a gap between him and the front pair in this market given the ability they've shown and any 7/2 or bigger without the favourite appeals.