Tony Calvin's Ante-post Tips: Coup de Pinceau is a player at Wincanton

I am happy to leave the Breeders' Cup to others - as we all know, once-a-year study forays into other racing jurisdictions leave you odds-against to come out on top - and is it not as if we are short of domestic action this weekend.

Having studied the three ITV cards for Saturday, I am still not sure whether I will be putting up any ante-post bets as I begin this write-up - the Sportsbook have priced up all 10 terrestrial races - but let's crack on and see where we end up.

I reckon we will find at least one bet.

Tomfre has decent chance of repeat victory

I will start with Doncaster, which I think brings the turf season to a close (though I am not sure any more with this mess of a seasonal structure on the Flat), and the ITV action starts with the 7f handicap at 13:25.

The going at Donny is currently soft with a largely dry (if not drying, given the time of the year) forecast and the problem that I had when assessing this race is that I narrowed it down to three at this stage, but I couldn't see that much juice in their current prices. I suspect they will be about the same price on Thursday afternoon, if and when they have been declared.

Last year's winner Tomfre (7/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook) has an obvious chance after a back-to-form effort at Leicester last time, while most, if not all, saw how unlucky fellow course winner Bernardo O'Reilly (12/1) was when third at Newmarket last weekend.

Hafeet Alain (14/1) was the third one of interest, as you have to say he shaped very encouragingly when fourth over track and trip recently, his first start in nearly a year having come back from a unsuccessful spell in Hong Kong. He has won on the course, too, and run well in defeat on his other two ventures.

I can certainly let the 6f Listed Wentworth Stakes (14:05) pass by without an early bet, as it looks a typically tight-knit sprint for a race of this nature.

I have no issue with Dakota Gold and King Lynn heading the market, but their prices are certainly no great shakes - certainly the latter, shortened into 3s this morning in an industry-wide cut - and the 16s about Makanah is probably a touch more appealing at 16s even if his best form has come at 5f.

November puzzle is too tricky (for now)

The November Handicap at 14:40 will clearly be the biggest betting race on the card and, with 33 entries, it is a tough old puzzle to solve as it stands.

I am not going to go around the houses discussing a race in depth that I have decided to let be for now, though Not So Sleepy would be bang on my radar if he comes here - he may go hurdling instead I guess, but I would love to see him go from the front over this 1m4f trip - and, similarly, I think the smooth-travelling Calling The Wind could benefit from coming down in distance after his Cesarewitch third. He certainly has the required pace.

Keep an eye on Aintree forecast and declarations

My Aintree study didn't start too well, as I had a good look at the 2m4f novices' handicap chase at 13:40 before going to hunt down the prices, only to discover that I hadn't clocked ITV weren't showing the race.

Shame, as I would have been very interested to see how big one horse would have been put in there (I may go outside of my terrestrial brief on Saturday if the 'oss in question runs).

The Grand Sefton at 14:15 is the centrepiece of this Liverpool card now the race has been brought forward a month to stop it clashing with the Becher on the same day - a sensible shift given those races always attracted double-entries - and it didn't surprise me in the least that the 12s in the marketplace about A Toi Phil disappeared on Monday (though he is currently available at 14.013/1 win-only on the Exchange).

The stable is obviously in rude health, the horse has experience over the fences, having finished 12th in the 2019 Nash when trained by Gordon Elliott, and the handicapper has dropped him a generous 4lb for his last run, which was actually promising enough.

He is handicapped to win at the moment but he is an 11yo now and I'd rather wait to see him entered on Thursday, as he hasn't been out for a while and has obviously had his issues in recent years.

The ground is currently soft at Aintree and I imagine Senior Citizen, currently a 7s poke, will go off favourite if the ground dries out appreciably (the forecast is largely dry), as he won well at Market Rasen on his return last month and has shaped well on both starts over these fences, including when running far better than his final position suggests on soft ground in this race last season. The drier the better for him.

Dusart heads the betting at 2/1 for the 10-runner Betway Hurdle at 15:20 but give me a filthy-looking handicap any day of the week, and they don't get much filthier than a Pertemps qualifier, which we get at 13:08.

However, I was very disappointed to see Dell 'Arca declared to run at Newbury on Thursday as I was all set to tip him at 20s, and outside of him nothing stood out at the current odds.

The market has fully taken into account the handicap upside of the likes of Didtheyleaveuoutto and Ratfacemcdougall, and this race is another that has passed me by for the time being.

Each-way play at Wincanton

We also have four on the box from Wincanton, and the 13/8 about Sceau Royal in a place for the Elite Hurdle (15:35) was mopped up quickly on Monday. Maybe that had a lot to do with the fact that his main market rival Goshen's form has come on soft ground and it is currently good at Wincanton with no substantial rain in the offing. If you fancy Goshen, I would wait until the final decs myself.

It is no surprise to see Bravemansgame, conqueror of the Charlie Hall winner Fusil Raffles at Newton Abbot, put in so short as 1/2 for the Rising Stars at 13:50.

Nothing much leapt out of me in the 2m5f handicap hurdle ay 14:25pm - Perfect Myth at 12s appealed most, I guess - but I will finally play in the Badger Beer at 15:00 in the shape of Coup de Pinceau at 20/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook. It is worth a small-stakes investment.

I was with him on occasions last season, most notably when he was a punted 12/1 when eighth in the Scottish National.

Now, he can get behind in his races and could well be taken out of his comfort zone early doors here - though he did win over 3m on good ground at Perth last year off this mark - but his track form and handicap mark have lured me in.

He is now 1lb lower than when dotting up by 12 lengths at Taunton back in March and he shaped well when third to Irish Prophecy here last time on his first start for Ralph Smith (small outfit but had a winner here last month), albeit again doing his best work late on over a slightly longer trip than this.

I just wonder whether they will replace his usual visor with the blinkers he wore when an excellent second at Warwick in 2019 - one of his best efforts - again over 3m on good ground, in a bid to make him more competitive early on. Or even cheekpieces, which he has won in twice.

Either way, I think he is a player, in an obviously competitive handicap, on a track where his form figures read 233.

I was all set to dutch my old cliff horse Cobra De Mai as conditions are set very fair for him and he is 11lb lower than when pulled up in this race last year, despite shaping well enough in two recent starts for his new stable, but the 16s went just as I was about to file and the 12s is only just fair now. The 10s about Cap Du Nord is decent enough, but just the one dart for me, here and now.