Newmarket 1,000 Guineas Antepost Tips: Bin Suroor to get back into the bigtime with 25/1 outsider

• Desert Flower heads the market for Sunday's fillies' Classic

• Outside pair appeal as each-way bets at 25/126.00 and 40/141.00

• Alan Dudman looks at Newmarket this Sunday with the latest Sportsbook prices 

Desert Flower has the tools for another Newmarket win

The 2,000 Guineas and the betting is far more open than the fillies' Classic on Sunday with Desert Flower at 10/111.91 as the current Sportsbook favourite, and you cannot really quibble with that price considering her unblemished record from last year.

2 (1)

Desert Flower (Ire)

• J: William Buick
• T: Charlie Appleby
• F:

A perfect four-from-four as a juvenile, her crowning performance came in the top level Fillies' Mile at Newmarket with a performance that had a sheen of nobility. Not many fillies win a Group 1 by five lengths with a batch of Aidan O'Brien horses filling second, third and fourth spots.

Notably the AOB trio (Ballet Slippers, January and Dreamy) are not in the 1,000, with Ballydoyle's main hope Lake Victoria, who herself had a perfect record as a juvenile culminating in success out in the Breeders' Cup.

7 (7)

Lake Victoria (Ire)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

Lake Victoria won the Cheveley Park over 6f and it's the age-old question as to whether a winner of that race can extend to one mile. Lake Victoria did so in Del Mar, but racing at that tight circuit will be a different sort of test to one that Newmarket will pose.

Bare form, the figures and numbers indicate it being close with her and Desert Flower - as the Fillies' Mile win was the best figure in the race since 2011 when staged at Ascot to earn a 117p rating from Timeform, but Lake Victoria wrapped up her season with a 119p rating.

Lake Victoria is a 7/24.50 chance on the Sportsbook, and while on pedigree as a daughter of Frankel, should stay, the way Desert Flower picks up at the business end suggests the Godolphin filly has the power to stretch out to go with her strong-looking physique.

O'Brien had a stranglehold on this Classic from 2016 to 2022 winning the race five times with some gilded fillies from Minding, Winter and then to Love.

There perhaps should be some sort of warning if you are looking to back Lake Victoria away from the trip alone, and that is that O'Brien stated last month she was slow to come to hand.

Can Elwateen follow the Ghanaati route?

I cannot help but think this race is open if you take away Desert Flower and it might be worth chancing a couple each-way here.

Firstly, Elwateen at 25/126.00 is less established with just the one start and winning one at Kempton.

4 (3)

Elwateen (Ire)

• J: Jim Crowley
• T: Saeed bin Suroor
• F:

Kevin Stott rode her at Kempton and he said she didn't do anything wrong at all and while it took a while for the penny to drop, it dropped well as she showed a good attitude with fair pace to win.

Her trainer Saeed bin Suroor said typically: "She's a nice filly."

She did hold and entry in the Fillies' Mile and asked on natural ability whether she was up to that, he replied yes and wanted to look after her for the future. Dubai could have been floated, but that was a no, and this looks it could be the Ghanaati route - who won on debut at Kempton and went straight to the 1000 to score at 20/121.00.

It's a big step up in class, clearly from a Novice and Maiden race, but fillies can improve a lot and the 25/126.00 is massive considering the yard won the race two seasons' back with Mawj, although Mawj looked a speedier type with Elwateen more of the 1m article.

I'd personally like to see Bin Suroor back in the big time and as a daughter of the late Hamdan Al Maktoum's homebred Tawkeel, she has the pedigree for it.

The other to float at a big price is Janey Mackers for trainer David Menuisier.

Now, I've been very impressed with the abilities of the handler and even he was taken aback by her impressive Doncaster victory last season by five lengths in soft ground.

The form of the race was nothing special with the fifth the only one to give the form a boost (Queen Of Thieves) and was half a second quicker than the runner-up.

She raced economically too aiming at a good pace and didn't expend any unwanted energy and as a New Bay there is absolutely no doubt about her getting the trip at all.

Menuisier said after Doncaster: "I'm not sure we'll enter in the 1,000 Guineas but I'm pretty sure she'll be entered in the Diane and the Oaks. I've had a lot of success with the sire New Bay and she was good from day one at the sales."

Although quotes from this spring suggested the speed is there, he said: "I would have bet my left arm she would want 10 furlongs this season, but having strengthened up in the winter, I have a doubt, as it looks like she might have gained a bit of speed."

While she was set to take in a trial in April in France, I am not too worried about that nor the ground as her fantastic stallion New Bay (who produces good lookers) nets an 18% win and 36% placed record from all of his turf runners on good, good to firm and firm.

His record on good to soft, soft and heavy as a sire reads similar at 17% and 39%.

Now read Alan Dudman's preview of the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday